Amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and leadership—most recently targeting sites in Tehran and Isfahan on March 27—Iran retaliated with a missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring 12 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft. The IRGC vowed "beyond an eye for an eye" responses against U.S.-linked industrial sites in Gulf states, fueling speculation over potential hits on oil refineries like Abqaiq or Ras Tanura, or Israel's Dimona nuclear center. Trump extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline to April 6 amid rejected ceasefire bids, as traders weigh Iran's degraded missile arsenal against ongoing barrages before March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will Iran strike by March 31?
What will Iran strike by March 31?
$449,918 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
3%
Burj Khalifa
4%
Ghawar Field
9%
Safaniya Field
9%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
11%
Al Zour Refinery
11%
Leviathan Field
8%
Khurais Field
11%
Ras Tanura
10%
East–West Pipeline
8%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
26%
$449,918 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$250,974 Vol.
3%
Burj Khalifa
$1,339 Vol.
4%
Ghawar Field
$30,358 Vol.
9%
Safaniya Field
$39,777 Vol.
9%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$38,986 Vol.
11%
Al Zour Refinery
$74,086 Vol.
11%
Leviathan Field
$796 Vol.
8%
Khurais Field
$4,474 Vol.
11%
Ras Tanura
$4,290 Vol.
10%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Vol.
8%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$0 Vol.
12%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$3,530 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and leadership—most recently targeting sites in Tehran and Isfahan on March 27—Iran retaliated with a missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring 12 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft. The IRGC vowed "beyond an eye for an eye" responses against U.S.-linked industrial sites in Gulf states, fueling speculation over potential hits on oil refineries like Abqaiq or Ras Tanura, or Israel's Dimona nuclear center. Trump extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline to April 6 amid rejected ceasefire bids, as traders weigh Iran's degraded missile arsenal against ongoing barrages before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$449,918Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and leadership—most recently targeting sites in Tehran and Isfahan on March 27—Iran retaliated with a missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring 12 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft. The IRGC vowed "beyond an eye for an eye" responses against U.S.-linked industrial sites in Gulf states, fueling speculation over potential hits on oil refineries like Abqaiq or Ras Tanura, or Israel's Dimona nuclear center. Trump extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline to April 6 amid rejected ceasefire bids, as traders weigh Iran's degraded missile arsenal against ongoing barrages before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$449,918Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and leadership—most recently targeting sites in Tehran and Isfahan on March 27—Iran retaliated with a missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring 12 U.S. troops and damaging aircraft. The IRGC vowed "beyond an eye for an eye" responses against U.S.-linked industrial sites in Gulf states, fueling speculation over potential hits on oil refineries like Abqaiq or Ras Tanura, or Israel's Dimona nuclear center. Trump extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline to April 6 amid rejected ceasefire bids, as traders weigh Iran's degraded missile arsenal against ongoing barrages before March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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