US special envoy Steve Witkoff's March 27 statement expressing hope for high-level meetings with Iran this week has fueled trader optimism for near-term diplomatic engagement, pausing US strikes after productive indirect discussions and a 15-point US peace proposal demanding Tehran concessions on nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz control. However, Iran's March 26 rejection of direct talks—citing unmet US goals amid deep mistrust—keeps short-term odds low at 13% by March 31, with traders favoring longer horizons like 52% by April 30 and 82% by June 30 as the consensus frontrunner. Earlier Geneva indirect rounds yielded principles but stalled, while reactivated channels via Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signal de-escalation potential against ongoing Middle East war tensions; watch for confirmations in possible venues like Geneva or Islamabad.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
$954,231 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
March 31
9%
April 10
37%
April 30
46%
June 30
82%
$954,231 Vol.
March 31
$604,713 Vol.
9%
April 10
$32 Vol.
37%
April 30
$88,395 Vol.
46%
June 30
$15,500 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US special envoy Steve Witkoff's March 27 statement expressing hope for high-level meetings with Iran this week has fueled trader optimism for near-term diplomatic engagement, pausing US strikes after productive indirect discussions and a 15-point US peace proposal demanding Tehran concessions on nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz control. However, Iran's March 26 rejection of direct talks—citing unmet US goals amid deep mistrust—keeps short-term odds low at 13% by March 31, with traders favoring longer horizons like 52% by April 30 and 82% by June 30 as the consensus frontrunner. Earlier Geneva indirect rounds yielded principles but stalled, while reactivated channels via Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signal de-escalation potential against ongoing Middle East war tensions; watch for confirmations in possible venues like Geneva or Islamabad.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
Volume
$954,231End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.US special envoy Steve Witkoff's March 27 statement expressing hope for high-level meetings with Iran this week has fueled trader optimism for near-term diplomatic engagement, pausing US strikes after productive indirect discussions and a 15-point US peace proposal demanding Tehran concessions on nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz control. However, Iran's March 26 rejection of direct talks—citing unmet US goals amid deep mistrust—keeps short-term odds low at 13% by March 31, with traders favoring longer horizons like 52% by April 30 and 82% by June 30 as the consensus frontrunner. Earlier Geneva indirect rounds yielded principles but stalled, while reactivated channels via Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signal de-escalation potential against ongoing Middle East war tensions; watch for confirmations in possible venues like Geneva or Islamabad.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$954,231End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US special envoy Steve Witkoff's March 27 statement expressing hope for high-level meetings with Iran this week has fueled trader optimism for near-term diplomatic engagement, pausing US strikes after productive indirect discussions and a 15-point US peace proposal demanding Tehran concessions on nuclear issues and Strait of Hormuz control. However, Iran's March 26 rejection of direct talks—citing unmet US goals amid deep mistrust—keeps short-term odds low at 13% by March 31, with traders favoring longer horizons like 52% by April 30 and 82% by June 30 as the consensus frontrunner. Earlier Geneva indirect rounds yielded principles but stalled, while reactivated channels via Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signal de-escalation potential against ongoing Middle East war tensions; watch for confirmations in possible venues like Geneva or Islamabad.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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