Tensions between the US and Iran persist without active ceasefire talks, driven by proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, alongside direct Israel-Iran military exchanges. The most recent escalation anchor remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of 200 ballistic missiles—which the US aided defensively via intercepts but publicly urged de-escalation to prevent regional war. Incoming President-elect Trump's signals of renewed maximum pressure, including tightened sanctions and strikes on proxies, further dim near-term diplomacy prospects. Key uncertainties include nuclear negotiations status and potential multilateral efforts at the UN, with traders monitoring transition-period statements and any surprise backchannel diplomacy ahead of inauguration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$53,342,348 Vol.
March 31
4%
April 7
15%
April 15
26%
April 30
40%
May 31
53%
June 30
61%
December 31
76%
$53,342,348 Vol.
March 31
$33,467,656 Vol.
4%
April 7
$668,298 Vol.
15%
April 15
$5,070,877 Vol.
26%
April 30
$5,889,919 Vol.
40%
May 31
$2,101,978 Vol.
53%
June 30
$2,204,893 Vol.
61%
December 31
$445,114 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran persist without active ceasefire talks, driven by proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, alongside direct Israel-Iran military exchanges. The most recent escalation anchor remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of 200 ballistic missiles—which the US aided defensively via intercepts but publicly urged de-escalation to prevent regional war. Incoming President-elect Trump's signals of renewed maximum pressure, including tightened sanctions and strikes on proxies, further dim near-term diplomacy prospects. Key uncertainties include nuclear negotiations status and potential multilateral efforts at the UN, with traders monitoring transition-period statements and any surprise backchannel diplomacy ahead of inauguration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$53,342,348Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran persist without active ceasefire talks, driven by proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, alongside direct Israel-Iran military exchanges. The most recent escalation anchor remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of 200 ballistic missiles—which the US aided defensively via intercepts but publicly urged de-escalation to prevent regional war. Incoming President-elect Trump's signals of renewed maximum pressure, including tightened sanctions and strikes on proxies, further dim near-term diplomacy prospects. Key uncertainties include nuclear negotiations status and potential multilateral efforts at the UN, with traders monitoring transition-period statements and any surprise backchannel diplomacy ahead of inauguration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$53,342,348Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the US and Iran persist without active ceasefire talks, driven by proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, alongside direct Israel-Iran military exchanges. The most recent escalation anchor remains Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian missile facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of 200 ballistic missiles—which the US aided defensively via intercepts but publicly urged de-escalation to prevent regional war. Incoming President-elect Trump's signals of renewed maximum pressure, including tightened sanctions and strikes on proxies, further dim near-term diplomacy prospects. Key uncertainties include nuclear negotiations status and potential multilateral efforts at the UN, with traders monitoring transition-period statements and any surprise backchannel diplomacy ahead of inauguration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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