Trader sentiment on a potential US-Iran ceasefire reflects persistent proxy conflicts through groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, amid no formal direct war but heightened tensions from Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iran's prior missile barrages. The November 27 US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which Iran tacitly supported by restraining proxies, has de-escalated one front without addressing US strikes on Houthi targets in the Red Sea or broader sanctions. Incoming Trump administration signals maximum pressure policy revival, diminishing near-term diplomatic breakthroughs, while Oman-mediated indirect talks persist amid nuclear concerns. Key upcoming events include January 20 inauguration and potential UN Security Council sessions on regional stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$53,676,224 Vol.
March 31
5%
April 7
14%
April 15
26%
April 30
39%
May 31
52%
June 30
61%
December 31
76%
$53,676,224 Vol.
March 31
$33,770,754 Vol.
5%
April 7
$683,080 Vol.
14%
April 15
$5,090,911 Vol.
26%
April 30
$5,938,666 Vol.
39%
May 31
$2,103,294 Vol.
52%
June 30
$2,205,263 Vol.
61%
December 31
$445,276 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader sentiment on a potential US-Iran ceasefire reflects persistent proxy conflicts through groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, amid no formal direct war but heightened tensions from Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iran's prior missile barrages. The November 27 US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which Iran tacitly supported by restraining proxies, has de-escalated one front without addressing US strikes on Houthi targets in the Red Sea or broader sanctions. Incoming Trump administration signals maximum pressure policy revival, diminishing near-term diplomatic breakthroughs, while Oman-mediated indirect talks persist amid nuclear concerns. Key upcoming events include January 20 inauguration and potential UN Security Council sessions on regional stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$53,676,224Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader sentiment on a potential US-Iran ceasefire reflects persistent proxy conflicts through groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, amid no formal direct war but heightened tensions from Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iran's prior missile barrages. The November 27 US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which Iran tacitly supported by restraining proxies, has de-escalated one front without addressing US strikes on Houthi targets in the Red Sea or broader sanctions. Incoming Trump administration signals maximum pressure policy revival, diminishing near-term diplomatic breakthroughs, while Oman-mediated indirect talks persist amid nuclear concerns. Key upcoming events include January 20 inauguration and potential UN Security Council sessions on regional stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$53,676,224Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on a potential US-Iran ceasefire reflects persistent proxy conflicts through groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, amid no formal direct war but heightened tensions from Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iran's prior missile barrages. The November 27 US-brokered Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, which Iran tacitly supported by restraining proxies, has de-escalated one front without addressing US strikes on Houthi targets in the Red Sea or broader sanctions. Incoming Trump administration signals maximum pressure policy revival, diminishing near-term diplomatic breakthroughs, while Oman-mediated indirect talks persist amid nuclear concerns. Key upcoming events include January 20 inauguration and potential UN Security Council sessions on regional stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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