Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by Iran's proxy support for attacks on Israel and US interests. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—prompted Iranian threats of response but no major escalation to date. US forces have intercepted Houthi drones and missiles backed by Iran, while diplomatic channels stay frozen amid sanctions and mutual accusations. The incoming Trump administration's hawkish rhetoric on Iran signals potential intensification of maximum pressure sanctions or military aid to Israel. Key upcoming events include possible proxy flare-ups in Gaza, Lebanon, or the Red Sea, alongside UN Security Council sessions on regional de-escalation, though deep ideological divides and historical precedents like the failed 2015 nuclear deal revival make a bilateral truce improbable soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran ceasefire by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
$53,559,375 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
March 31
4%
April 7
14%
April 15
28%
April 30
39%
May 31
52%
June 30
61%
December 31
76%
$53,559,375 Vol.
March 31
$33,645,639 Vol.
4%
April 7
$680,725 Vol.
14%
April 15
$5,076,432 Vol.
28%
April 30
$5,938,195 Vol.
39%
May 31
$2,102,619 Vol.
52%
June 30
$2,205,207 Vol.
61%
December 31
$445,162 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by Iran's proxy support for attacks on Israel and US interests. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—prompted Iranian threats of response but no major escalation to date. US forces have intercepted Houthi drones and missiles backed by Iran, while diplomatic channels stay frozen amid sanctions and mutual accusations. The incoming Trump administration's hawkish rhetoric on Iran signals potential intensification of maximum pressure sanctions or military aid to Israel. Key upcoming events include possible proxy flare-ups in Gaza, Lebanon, or the Red Sea, alongside UN Security Council sessions on regional de-escalation, though deep ideological divides and historical precedents like the failed 2015 nuclear deal revival make a bilateral truce improbable soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$53,559,375Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by Iran's proxy support for attacks on Israel and US interests. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—prompted Iranian threats of response but no major escalation to date. US forces have intercepted Houthi drones and missiles backed by Iran, while diplomatic channels stay frozen amid sanctions and mutual accusations. The incoming Trump administration's hawkish rhetoric on Iran signals potential intensification of maximum pressure sanctions or military aid to Israel. Key upcoming events include possible proxy flare-ups in Gaza, Lebanon, or the Red Sea, alongside UN Security Council sessions on regional de-escalation, though deep ideological divides and historical precedents like the failed 2015 nuclear deal revival make a bilateral truce improbable soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$53,559,375Market Opened
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated without active ceasefire negotiations, driven by Iran's proxy support for attacks on Israel and US interests. Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military facilities—retaliation for Tehran's October 1 missile barrage—prompted Iranian threats of response but no major escalation to date. US forces have intercepted Houthi drones and missiles backed by Iran, while diplomatic channels stay frozen amid sanctions and mutual accusations. The incoming Trump administration's hawkish rhetoric on Iran signals potential intensification of maximum pressure sanctions or military aid to Israel. Key upcoming events include possible proxy flare-ups in Gaza, Lebanon, or the Red Sea, alongside UN Security Council sessions on regional de-escalation, though deep ideological divides and historical precedents like the failed 2015 nuclear deal revival make a bilateral truce improbable soon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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