Robust U.S. GDP growth and stable labor market conditions underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026 on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital amid resilient economic expansion. Q3 2025 real GDP surged 4.4% annualized, following 3.8% in Q2, with unemployment holding steady around 4.2% and smoothed New York Fed recession probabilities near 0.8% in late 2025. Recent oil price spikes and persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target—exacerbated by tariffs—have nudged "Yes" odds up to around 30%, aligning with Goldman Sachs' revised 30% 12-month risk estimate. Key catalysts ahead include the April 30 Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could shift rate cut expectations and sentiment if labor data softens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?
$985,284 Vol.
$985,284 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
$985,284 Vol.
$985,284 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. GDP growth and stable labor market conditions underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026 on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital amid resilient economic expansion. Q3 2025 real GDP surged 4.4% annualized, following 3.8% in Q2, with unemployment holding steady around 4.2% and smoothed New York Fed recession probabilities near 0.8% in late 2025. Recent oil price spikes and persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target—exacerbated by tariffs—have nudged "Yes" odds up to around 30%, aligning with Goldman Sachs' revised 30% 12-month risk estimate. Key catalysts ahead include the April 30 Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could shift rate cut expectations and sentiment if labor data softens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$985,284End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRobust U.S. GDP growth and stable labor market conditions underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026 on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital amid resilient economic expansion. Q3 2025 real GDP surged 4.4% annualized, following 3.8% in Q2, with unemployment holding steady around 4.2% and smoothed New York Fed recession probabilities near 0.8% in late 2025. Recent oil price spikes and persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target—exacerbated by tariffs—have nudged "Yes" odds up to around 30%, aligning with Goldman Sachs' revised 30% 12-month risk estimate. Key catalysts ahead include the April 30 Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could shift rate cut expectations and sentiment if labor data softens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$985,302End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. GDP growth and stable labor market conditions underpin the 69.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2026 on Polymarket, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital amid resilient economic expansion. Q3 2025 real GDP surged 4.4% annualized, following 3.8% in Q2, with unemployment holding steady around 4.2% and smoothed New York Fed recession probabilities near 0.8% in late 2025. Recent oil price spikes and persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target—exacerbated by tariffs—have nudged "Yes" odds up to around 30%, aligning with Goldman Sachs' revised 30% 12-month risk estimate. Key catalysts ahead include the April 30 Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and upcoming FOMC meetings, which could shift rate cut expectations and sentiment if labor data softens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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