Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and armed forces—now in its sixth week since launching on February 28—US special forces conducted a high-risk rescue operation inside Iranian territory over the April 3-4 weekend, extracting a crew member from a downed F-15 fighter jet amid antiaircraft threats. This marked the first confirmed ground entry, prompting trader consensus toward escalation despite no sustained troop presence or full invasion. President Trump escalated rhetoric April 5, vowing strikes on Iranian power plants and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, while Pentagon deployments bolster regional forces for potential coastal or island assaults like Kharg. Uncertainties persist around diplomatic off-ramps and Iranian retaliation capacities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$150,206,553 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 30
100%
December 31
100%
$150,206,553 Vol.
April 30
$60,523,767 Vol.
100%
December 31
$14,209,846 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and armed forces—now in its sixth week since launching on February 28—US special forces conducted a high-risk rescue operation inside Iranian territory over the April 3-4 weekend, extracting a crew member from a downed F-15 fighter jet amid antiaircraft threats. This marked the first confirmed ground entry, prompting trader consensus toward escalation despite no sustained troop presence or full invasion. President Trump escalated rhetoric April 5, vowing strikes on Iranian power plants and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, while Pentagon deployments bolster regional forces for potential coastal or island assaults like Kharg. Uncertainties persist around diplomatic off-ramps and Iranian retaliation capacities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$150,206,553Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and armed forces—now in its sixth week since launching on February 28—US special forces conducted a high-risk rescue operation inside Iranian territory over the April 3-4 weekend, extracting a crew member from a downed F-15 fighter jet amid antiaircraft threats. This marked the first confirmed ground entry, prompting trader consensus toward escalation despite no sustained troop presence or full invasion. President Trump escalated rhetoric April 5, vowing strikes on Iranian power plants and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, while Pentagon deployments bolster regional forces for potential coastal or island assaults like Kharg. Uncertainties persist around diplomatic off-ramps and Iranian retaliation capacities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Volume
$150,206,553Market Opened
Mar 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
Amid the US-Israel air campaign against Iran's nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and armed forces—now in its sixth week since launching on February 28—US special forces conducted a high-risk rescue operation inside Iranian territory over the April 3-4 weekend, extracting a crew member from a downed F-15 fighter jet amid antiaircraft threats. This marked the first confirmed ground entry, prompting trader consensus toward escalation despite no sustained troop presence or full invasion. President Trump escalated rhetoric April 5, vowing strikes on Iranian power plants and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, while Pentagon deployments bolster regional forces for potential coastal or island assaults like Kharg. Uncertainties persist around diplomatic off-ramps and Iranian retaliation capacities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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