Amid the sixth week of US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and infrastructure targets—initiated February 28, 2026—traders weigh escalating ground risks after a US F-15E fighter jet downed inside Iran prompted special operations forces to cross into Iranian territory yesterday for a downed pilot recovery amid mutual search efforts. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum, expiring today, demands Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face intensified attacks, fueling bets on boots-on-the-ground amid 50,000 US troops deployed regionally, including Marines and the 82nd Airborne prepositioned for potential weeks-long operations targeting nuclear sites and coastal chokepoints. Diplomatic off-ramps remain elusive as Tehran rejects terms, with oil spikes underscoring economic pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$119,496,331 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
91%
December 31
95%
$119,496,331 Vol.
March 31
$73,373,946 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$32,870,711 Vol.
91%
December 31
$11,194,373 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the sixth week of US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and infrastructure targets—initiated February 28, 2026—traders weigh escalating ground risks after a US F-15E fighter jet downed inside Iran prompted special operations forces to cross into Iranian territory yesterday for a downed pilot recovery amid mutual search efforts. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum, expiring today, demands Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face intensified attacks, fueling bets on boots-on-the-ground amid 50,000 US troops deployed regionally, including Marines and the 82nd Airborne prepositioned for potential weeks-long operations targeting nuclear sites and coastal chokepoints. Diplomatic off-ramps remain elusive as Tehran rejects terms, with oil spikes underscoring economic pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$119,496,331Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the sixth week of US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and infrastructure targets—initiated February 28, 2026—traders weigh escalating ground risks after a US F-15E fighter jet downed inside Iran prompted special operations forces to cross into Iranian territory yesterday for a downed pilot recovery amid mutual search efforts. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum, expiring today, demands Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face intensified attacks, fueling bets on boots-on-the-ground amid 50,000 US troops deployed regionally, including Marines and the 82nd Airborne prepositioned for potential weeks-long operations targeting nuclear sites and coastal chokepoints. Diplomatic off-ramps remain elusive as Tehran rejects terms, with oil spikes underscoring economic pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$119,496,331Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Outcome proposed: No
Disputed
Final review
Amid the sixth week of US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and infrastructure targets—initiated February 28, 2026—traders weigh escalating ground risks after a US F-15E fighter jet downed inside Iran prompted special operations forces to cross into Iranian territory yesterday for a downed pilot recovery amid mutual search efforts. President Trump's 48-hour ultimatum, expiring today, demands Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face intensified attacks, fueling bets on boots-on-the-ground amid 50,000 US troops deployed regionally, including Marines and the 82nd Airborne prepositioned for potential weeks-long operations targeting nuclear sites and coastal chokepoints. Diplomatic off-ramps remain elusive as Tehran rejects terms, with oil spikes underscoring economic pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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