Amid Israel-Iran escalation, including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites, the US provided defensive support like missile intercepts but reiterated commitments to de-escalation and avoiding direct offensive involvement. Biden administration officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, have emphasized diplomacy and deterrence via naval assets in the Persian Gulf, with no indications of ground troop deployments or invasion planning into Iran. Historical aversion to Middle East ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan informs trader caution, alongside the November 5 presidential election that could alter foreign policy toward sanctions, nuclear talks, or military posture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$36,274,894 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
17%
April 30
62%
December 31
71%
$36,274,894 Vol.
March 31
$24,588,094 Vol.
17%
April 30
$4,784,220 Vol.
62%
December 31
$4,832,757 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid Israel-Iran escalation, including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites, the US provided defensive support like missile intercepts but reiterated commitments to de-escalation and avoiding direct offensive involvement. Biden administration officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, have emphasized diplomacy and deterrence via naval assets in the Persian Gulf, with no indications of ground troop deployments or invasion planning into Iran. Historical aversion to Middle East ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan informs trader caution, alongside the November 5 presidential election that could alter foreign policy toward sanctions, nuclear talks, or military posture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$36,274,894Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid Israel-Iran escalation, including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites, the US provided defensive support like missile intercepts but reiterated commitments to de-escalation and avoiding direct offensive involvement. Biden administration officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, have emphasized diplomacy and deterrence via naval assets in the Persian Gulf, with no indications of ground troop deployments or invasion planning into Iran. Historical aversion to Middle East ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan informs trader caution, alongside the November 5 presidential election that could alter foreign policy toward sanctions, nuclear talks, or military posture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$36,274,894Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid Israel-Iran escalation, including Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's October 26 retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites, the US provided defensive support like missile intercepts but reiterated commitments to de-escalation and avoiding direct offensive involvement. Biden administration officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, have emphasized diplomacy and deterrence via naval assets in the Persian Gulf, with no indications of ground troop deployments or invasion planning into Iran. Historical aversion to Middle East ground wars post-Iraq and Afghanistan informs trader caution, alongside the November 5 presidential election that could alter foreign policy toward sanctions, nuclear talks, or military posture.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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