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Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

May 26

May 26

Ken Paxton 70%

John Cornyn 28%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$12,935,480 Vol.

Ken Paxton 70%

John Cornyn 28%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$12,935,480 Vol.

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Ken Paxton

$4,025,606 Vol.

70%

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John Cornyn

$2,835,020 Vol.

28%

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Dawn Buckingham

$883,609 Vol.

<1%

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Beth Van Duyne

$3,448,245 Vol.

<1%

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Wesley Hunt

$1,743,000 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 69.5% implied probability to win the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on May 26, reflecting Paxton's dominance among the GOP base after neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 first-round primary. Recent CPAC endorsement of Paxton and a March 28 straw poll there showing him at 67% to Cornyn's 21% have boosted sentiment, underscoring grassroots preference for Paxton's hardline stance on border security and criticism of Cornyn as establishment-aligned. A March 20 poll indicated Paxton leading absent a Trump endorsement, which remains pending and could sway undecideds. Cornyn's 28% share draws from institutional support and fundraising edge, while minor candidates trail at 0.1% post-primary elimination. Ted Cruz recently warned the intra-party fight risks weakening the GOP nominee against Democrat James Talarico in November.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 69.5% implied probability to win the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on May 26, reflecting Paxton's dominance among the GOP base after neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 first-round primary. Recent CPAC endorsement of Paxton and a March 28 straw poll there showing him at 67% to Cornyn's 21% have boosted sentiment, underscoring grassroots preference for Paxton's hardline stance on border security and criticism of Cornyn as establishment-aligned. A March 20 poll indicated Paxton leading absent a Trump endorsement, which remains pending and could sway undecideds. Cornyn's 28% share draws from institutional support and fundraising edge, while minor candidates trail at 0.1% post-primary elimination. Ted Cruz recently warned the intra-party fight risks weakening the GOP nominee against Democrat James Talarico in November.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 69.5% implied probability to win the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on May 26, reflecting Paxton's dominance among the GOP base after neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 first-round primary. Recent CPAC endorsement of Paxton and a March 28 straw poll there showing him at 67% to Cornyn's 21% have boosted sentiment, underscoring grassroots preference for Paxton's hardline stance on border security and criticism of Cornyn as establishment-aligned. A March 20 poll indicated Paxton leading absent a Trump endorsement, which remains pending and could sway undecideds. Cornyn's 28% share draws from institutional support and fundraising edge, while minor candidates trail at 0.1% post-primary elimination. Ted Cruz recently warned the intra-party fight risks weakening the GOP nominee against Democrat James Talarico in November.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 69.5% implied probability to win the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on May 26, reflecting Paxton's dominance among the GOP base after neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 first-round primary. Recent CPAC endorsement of Paxton and a March 28 straw poll there showing him at 67% to Cornyn's 21% have boosted sentiment, underscoring grassroots preference for Paxton's hardline stance on border security and criticism of Cornyn as establishment-aligned. A March 20 poll indicated Paxton leading absent a Trump endorsement, which remains pending and could sway undecideds. Cornyn's 28% share draws from institutional support and fundraising edge, while minor candidates trail at 0.1% post-primary elimination. Ted Cruz recently warned the intra-party fight risks weakening the GOP nominee against Democrat James Talarico in November.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ken Paxton" at 70%, followed by "John Cornyn" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $12.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ken Paxton" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Cornyn" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.