Tennessee's status as a Republican stronghold, with GOP control of the governorship since 1994, trifecta state government, and strong performances in recent presidential races, positions Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 89.8% implied probability. Term-limited incumbent Governor Bill Lee has cleared the field for a crowded GOP primary on August 6, where late March polls from Tennesseans for Student Success and others show U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn surging to a commanding lead—often over 50%—ahead of Rep. John Rose and others, bolstered by superior fundraising through mid-April. Democrats, led by candidates like Jerri Green, lag in polls and resources, reinforcing trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election, though a fragmented GOP primary or unforeseen national trends could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTennessee Governor Election Winner
Tennessee Governor Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
90%
Democrat
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$1,879 Vol.
90%
Democrat
$699 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tennessee's status as a Republican stronghold, with GOP control of the governorship since 1994, trifecta state government, and strong performances in recent presidential races, positions Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 89.8% implied probability. Term-limited incumbent Governor Bill Lee has cleared the field for a crowded GOP primary on August 6, where late March polls from Tennesseans for Student Success and others show U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn surging to a commanding lead—often over 50%—ahead of Rep. John Rose and others, bolstered by superior fundraising through mid-April. Democrats, led by candidates like Jerri Green, lag in polls and resources, reinforcing trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election, though a fragmented GOP primary or unforeseen national trends could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$2,578End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tennessee's status as a Republican stronghold, with GOP control of the governorship since 1994, trifecta state government, and strong performances in recent presidential races, positions Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 89.8% implied probability. Term-limited incumbent Governor Bill Lee has cleared the field for a crowded GOP primary on August 6, where late March polls from Tennesseans for Student Success and others show U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn surging to a commanding lead—often over 50%—ahead of Rep. John Rose and others, bolstered by superior fundraising through mid-April. Democrats, led by candidates like Jerri Green, lag in polls and resources, reinforcing trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election, though a fragmented GOP primary or unforeseen national trends could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,578End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's status as a Republican stronghold, with GOP control of the governorship since 1994, trifecta state government, and strong performances in recent presidential races, positions Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 89.8% implied probability. Term-limited incumbent Governor Bill Lee has cleared the field for a crowded GOP primary on August 6, where late March polls from Tennesseans for Student Success and others show U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn surging to a commanding lead—often over 50%—ahead of Rep. John Rose and others, bolstered by superior fundraising through mid-April. Democrats, led by candidates like Jerri Green, lag in polls and resources, reinforcing trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election, though a fragmented GOP primary or unforeseen national trends could shift dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions