Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with trader consensus reflecting the state's consistent Republican tilt and his unopposed primary win. Tennessee's electorate delivered large margins for Republican presidential candidates in recent cycles, and Hagerty benefits from incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a state where Democrats have struggled to compete statewide. Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August primary but trails significantly in limited polling, faces structural headwinds including low reported cash reserves and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. A shift in odds would require major developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or sharp national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTennessee Senate Election Winner
Tennessee Senate Election Winner
$29,917 Vol.
$29,917 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bill Hagerty (R)
97%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
3%
$29,917 Vol.
$29,917 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Bill Hagerty (R)
$19,527 Vol.
97%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
$10,390 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with trader consensus reflecting the state's consistent Republican tilt and his unopposed primary win. Tennessee's electorate delivered large margins for Republican presidential candidates in recent cycles, and Hagerty benefits from incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a state where Democrats have struggled to compete statewide. Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August primary but trails significantly in limited polling, faces structural headwinds including low reported cash reserves and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. A shift in odds would require major developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or sharp national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$29,917End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with trader consensus reflecting the state's consistent Republican tilt and his unopposed primary win. Tennessee's electorate delivered large margins for Republican presidential candidates in recent cycles, and Hagerty benefits from incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a state where Democrats have struggled to compete statewide. Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August primary but trails significantly in limited polling, faces structural headwinds including low reported cash reserves and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. A shift in odds would require major developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or sharp national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$29,917End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with trader consensus reflecting the state's consistent Republican tilt and his unopposed primary win. Tennessee's electorate delivered large margins for Republican presidential candidates in recent cycles, and Hagerty benefits from incumbency advantages, substantial fundraising, and endorsements in a state where Democrats have struggled to compete statewide. Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw, who won her August primary but trails significantly in limited polling, faces structural headwinds including low reported cash reserves and the absence of competitive Democratic infrastructure. A shift in odds would require major developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health event, or sharp national political realignment before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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