Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory in Tennessee's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—evident in recent landslide wins, supermajorities in the legislature, and term limits barring incumbent Governor Bill Lee's re-election—and robust March polling showing U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn commanding the Republican primary with 56-58% support over challengers like John Rose and Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary features lesser-known candidates like Jerri Green amid a sparse field, with no competitive general election polls emerging post the March 10 qualifying deadline. While the August 6 primaries loom as the next catalyst, scenarios like a GOP frontrunner scandal, primary upset, or improbable Democratic turnout surge in this reliably red state could shift odds, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTennessee Governor Election Winner
Tennessee Governor Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
91%
Democrat
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$1,609 Vol.
91%
Democrat
$662 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory in Tennessee's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—evident in recent landslide wins, supermajorities in the legislature, and term limits barring incumbent Governor Bill Lee's re-election—and robust March polling showing U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn commanding the Republican primary with 56-58% support over challengers like John Rose and Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary features lesser-known candidates like Jerri Green amid a sparse field, with no competitive general election polls emerging post the March 10 qualifying deadline. While the August 6 primaries loom as the next catalyst, scenarios like a GOP frontrunner scandal, primary upset, or improbable Democratic turnout surge in this reliably red state could shift odds, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Volume
$2,270End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory in Tennessee's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—evident in recent landslide wins, supermajorities in the legislature, and term limits barring incumbent Governor Bill Lee's re-election—and robust March polling showing U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn commanding the Republican primary with 56-58% support over challengers like John Rose and Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary features lesser-known candidates like Jerri Green amid a sparse field, with no competitive general election polls emerging post the March 10 qualifying deadline. While the August 6 primaries loom as the next catalyst, scenarios like a GOP frontrunner scandal, primary upset, or improbable Democratic turnout surge in this reliably red state could shift odds, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,270End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors a Republican victory in Tennessee's 2026 gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched GOP dominance—evident in recent landslide wins, supermajorities in the legislature, and term limits barring incumbent Governor Bill Lee's re-election—and robust March polling showing U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn commanding the Republican primary with 56-58% support over challengers like John Rose and Monty Fritts. The Democratic primary features lesser-known candidates like Jerri Green amid a sparse field, with no competitive general election polls emerging post the March 10 qualifying deadline. While the August 6 primaries loom as the next catalyst, scenarios like a GOP frontrunner scandal, primary upset, or improbable Democratic turnout surge in this reliably red state could shift odds, though historical precedents suggest formidable barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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