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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,437,767 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.9%

Tucker Carlson 4.5%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$508,437,767 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$8,342,915 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,805,322 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,404,293 Vol.

4%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,976,091 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,515,407 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,006,091 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,856,303 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,675,243 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,235,307 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,950,699 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,457,673 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,547,250 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,402,374 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,582,105 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,644,354 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,081,699 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,479,996 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,147,373 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,260,690 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,389,903 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,295,512 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,283,111 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,604,169 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,704,803 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,646,154 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,122,719 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,065,062 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,113,343 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,418,166 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,620,163 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,243,885 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,098,435 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,004,178 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,577,073 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$33,890,120 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary pushing MAHA reforms despite federal court injunctions halting vaccine policy changes last week, resonating with the GOP base's distrust of public health agencies. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37%, buoyed by incumbency advantage but tempered by a recent odds dip to 18% amid speculation of waning Trump favor, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio climbs to 21% following a late-March New Hampshire poll naming him second behind Vance. With President Trump's term limits creating an open primary field, traders weigh VP path-to-victory dynamics, early primary signals like Granite State preferences, and geopolitical tensions including Iran escalations favoring foreign policy resumes ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,437,767
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, driven by his high-profile role as HHS Secretary pushing MAHA reforms despite federal court injunctions halting vaccine policy changes last week, resonating with the GOP base's distrust of public health agencies. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37%, buoyed by incumbency advantage but tempered by a recent odds dip to 18% amid speculation of waning Trump favor, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio climbs to 21% following a late-March New Hampshire poll naming him second behind Vance. With President Trump's term limits creating an open primary field, traders weigh VP path-to-victory dynamics, early primary signals like Granite State preferences, and geopolitical tensions including Iran escalations favoring foreign policy resumes ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$508,437,767
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $508.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.