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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.4%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,488,805 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.4%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,488,805 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$10,013,537 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,925,405 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,483,572 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,177,551 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,581,078 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,015,670 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,938,944 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,688,632 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,468,016 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,997,245 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,475,618 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,887,630 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,932,119 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,673,925 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,688,921 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,124,276 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,631,792 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,318,647 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,412,298 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,344,111 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,281,570 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,487,191 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,850,935 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,563,126 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,340,226 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,236,048 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,696,716 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,019,681 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,592,887 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,759,244 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,715,801 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,766,861 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,409,716 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,289,699 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,849,235 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary advancing Make America Healthy Again initiatives and his recent deployment to swing states for 2026 midterm campaigning to boost GOP turnout, as reported April 4. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% implied probability, bolstered by incumbency and strong showings in CPAC and JL Partners straw polls where he led with 53% support, though some donor preferences lean toward Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20%. With President Trump's term limits barring a third run, the open primary emphasizes early positioning amid upcoming midterms that could shift paths to victory through key voting blocs and fundraising.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,488,805
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary advancing Make America Healthy Again initiatives and his recent deployment to swing states for 2026 midterm campaigning to boost GOP turnout, as reported April 4. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 37% implied probability, bolstered by incumbency and strong showings in CPAC and JL Partners straw polls where he led with 53% support, though some donor preferences lean toward Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20%. With President Trump's term limits barring a third run, the open primary emphasizes early positioning amid upcoming midterms that could shift paths to victory through key voting blocs and fundraising.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,488,805
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $519.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.