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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 5.4%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$487,261,192 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 5.4%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$487,261,192 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,794,071 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,569,851 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,205,166 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,894,535 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,239,489 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,571,438 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,667,184 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,825,878 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,932,033 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,297,546 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,233,612 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,961,271 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,643,789 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,890,780 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,099,845 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,150,319 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,063,967 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,888,433 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,849,216 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,125,515 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,046,204 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,912,367 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,238,029 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,795,076 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,971,021 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,372,202 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,203,726 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,539,139 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,677,300 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,691,162 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,673,614 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,570,488 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$32,936,582 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,530,673 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,201,196 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile Make America Healthy Again agenda—including chronic disease investigations and reforms at CDC, FDA, and NIH—that appeals to populist GOP voters seeking anti-corporate health policy shifts, despite recent court blocks on vaccine initiatives and administration efforts to curb his midterm risks. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5% after March 19–20 reports of his indecision on a run, fueled by family priorities and tensions over hawkish Iran policy clashing with his isolationism, crashing his odds to lows. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects early March surges from GOP donor "draft Rubio" pushes and polls favoring him as a Trump-era successor amid the open primary field, with 2026 midterms as pivotal tests.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile Make America Healthy Again agenda—including chronic disease investigations and reforms at CDC, FDA, and NIH—that appeals to populist GOP voters seeking anti-corporate health policy shifts, despite recent court blocks on vaccine initiatives and administration efforts to curb his midterm risks. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5% after March 19–20 reports of his indecision on a run, fueled by family priorities and tensions over hawkish Iran policy clashing with his isolationism, crashing his odds to lows. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects early March surges from GOP donor "draft Rubio" pushes and polls favoring him as a Trump-era successor amid the open primary field, with 2026 midterms as pivotal tests.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile Make America Healthy Again agenda—including chronic disease investigations and reforms at CDC, FDA, and NIH—that appeals to populist GOP voters seeking anti-corporate health policy shifts, despite recent court blocks on vaccine initiatives and administration efforts to curb his midterm risks. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5% after March 19–20 reports of his indecision on a run, fueled by family priorities and tensions over hawkish Iran policy clashing with his isolationism, crashing his odds to lows. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects early March surges from GOP donor "draft Rubio" pushes and polls favoring him as a Trump-era successor amid the open primary field, with 2026 midterms as pivotal tests.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, propelled by his high-profile Make America Healthy Again agenda—including chronic disease investigations and reforms at CDC, FDA, and NIH—that appeals to populist GOP voters seeking anti-corporate health policy shifts, despite recent court blocks on vaccine initiatives and administration efforts to curb his midterm risks. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.5% after March 19–20 reports of his indecision on a run, fueled by family priorities and tensions over hawkish Iran policy clashing with his isolationism, crashing his odds to lows. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects early March surges from GOP donor "draft Rubio" pushes and polls favoring him as a Trump-era successor amid the open primary field, with 2026 midterms as pivotal tests.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $487.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.