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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 37.0%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$520,064,672 Vol.

J.D. Vance 37.0%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$520,064,672 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$10,065,158 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,930,713 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,486,580 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,323,432 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,582,137 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,016,802 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,941,763 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,691,132 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,471,178 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,957,393 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,999,286 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,477,728 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,982,620 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,676,152 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,128,937 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,634,077 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,691,669 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,321,186 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,417,387 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,345,286 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,283,747 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,490,204 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,855,265 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,567,122 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,346,082 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,240,454 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,701,668 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,019,867 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,611,218 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,759,444 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,717,769 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,768,336 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,414,028 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,294,925 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,859,397 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the leading Republican presidential nominee for 2028 at 49%, reflecting his high-profile MAHA agenda, recent microplastics announcement with EPA, and CPAC speech resonating with the GOP base on health reforms amid vaccine skepticism. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by a CPAC straw poll win and donor summit appearances, though his new book release fuels early primary positioning. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share has surged on reports of President Trump privately polling major donors on Vance versus Rubio preferences amid the ongoing Iran war, highlighting foreign policy tests and succession dynamics ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$520,064,672
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the leading Republican presidential nominee for 2028 at 49%, reflecting his high-profile MAHA agenda, recent microplastics announcement with EPA, and CPAC speech resonating with the GOP base on health reforms amid vaccine skepticism. Vice President J.D. Vance trails at 37%, buoyed by a CPAC straw poll win and donor summit appearances, though his new book release fuels early primary positioning. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% share has surged on reports of President Trump privately polling major donors on Vance versus Rubio preferences amid the ongoing Iran war, highlighting foreign policy tests and succession dynamics ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$520,064,672
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $520.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.