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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,835,514 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.8%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,835,514 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$10,035,800 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,929,899 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,484,171 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,231,107 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,581,276 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,016,755 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,940,553 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,690,477 Vol.

2%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,927,131 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$16,470,455 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,998,261 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,475,895 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,951,050 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,675,005 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,126,919 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,634,066 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,689,566 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,319,608 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,413,035 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,345,271 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,282,863 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,489,411 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,853,069 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,759,439 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,565,995 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,343,009 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,239,676 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,700,792 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,019,681 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,611,031 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,717,513 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,767,327 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,411,637 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,293,699 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,854,238 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads Polymarket trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives, recent swing-state midterm campaigning, and crossover appeal from his 2024 Trump endorsement, positioning him as a fresh outsider amid President Trump's term limits barring a third run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.4%, benefiting from incumbency and as heir to the MAGA base despite reported donor preferences for alternatives. Marco Rubio's 20.6% reflects a surge after early March reports of Trump privately polling big donors, who favored him over Vance. With 2026 midterms approaching, administrative successes and party dynamics will test these paths to victory in the open primary.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,835,514
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads Polymarket trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, driven by his high-profile Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives, recent swing-state midterm campaigning, and crossover appeal from his 2024 Trump endorsement, positioning him as a fresh outsider amid President Trump's term limits barring a third run. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 36.4%, benefiting from incumbency and as heir to the MAGA base despite reported donor preferences for alternatives. Marco Rubio's 20.6% reflects a surge after early March reports of Trump privately polling big donors, who favored him over Vance. With 2026 midterms approaching, administrative successes and party dynamics will test these paths to victory in the open primary.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,835,514
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $519.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.