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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 5.4%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$487,308,639 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.5%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 5.4%

Ron DeSantis 2.9%

Polymarket

$487,308,639 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,795,242 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,575,650 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,205,466 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,894,969 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,240,366 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,572,273 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,667,756 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,826,009 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$15,932,256 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,298,314 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,233,777 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,962,437 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,651,008 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,890,780 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,100,288 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,150,438 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$9,064,583 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,888,433 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,851,884 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,125,726 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,046,724 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,912,596 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,238,029 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,795,143 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,972,073 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,388,623 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$21,204,234 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,539,211 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,677,596 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,692,276 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,674,634 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,570,828 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$32,944,549 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$10,532,755 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$32,202,617 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, driven by his prominent role as HHS Secretary implementing health policy reforms that resonate with the populist base, including recent statements aligning his family's legacy with President Trump's agenda on foreign policy and the middle class. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 36.5% amid a sharp recent drop to record lows, possibly tied to perceptions in ongoing foreign policy debates like the Iran conflict, despite winning today's CPAC straw poll at 53%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects gains from handling the Iran war escalation and emerging GOP donor "draft Rubio" efforts, highlighting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit. 2026 midterms loom as a key test.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, driven by his prominent role as HHS Secretary implementing health policy reforms that resonate with the populist base, including recent statements aligning his family's legacy with President Trump's agenda on foreign policy and the middle class. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 36.5% amid a sharp recent drop to record lows, possibly tied to perceptions in ongoing foreign policy debates like the Iran conflict, despite winning today's CPAC straw poll at 53%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects gains from handling the Iran war escalation and emerging GOP donor "draft Rubio" efforts, highlighting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit. 2026 midterms loom as a key test.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, driven by his prominent role as HHS Secretary implementing health policy reforms that resonate with the populist base, including recent statements aligning his family's legacy with President Trump's agenda on foreign policy and the middle class. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 36.5% amid a sharp recent drop to record lows, possibly tied to perceptions in ongoing foreign policy debates like the Iran conflict, despite winning today's CPAC straw poll at 53%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects gains from handling the Iran war escalation and emerging GOP donor "draft Rubio" efforts, highlighting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit. 2026 midterms loom as a key test.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, driven by his prominent role as HHS Secretary implementing health policy reforms that resonate with the populist base, including recent statements aligning his family's legacy with President Trump's agenda on foreign policy and the middle class. Vice President J.D. Vance holds 36.5% amid a sharp recent drop to record lows, possibly tied to perceptions in ongoing foreign policy debates like the Iran conflict, despite winning today's CPAC straw poll at 53%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 20.8% reflects gains from handling the Iran war escalation and emerging GOP donor "draft Rubio" efforts, highlighting an open primary field post-Trump's term limit. 2026 midterms loom as a key test.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $487.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.