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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.6%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$511,064,244 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.8%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 4.6%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$511,064,244 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$8,901,238 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,821,517 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,437,389 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$8,980,817 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,524,596 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,860,680 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,677,693 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,007,792 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,289,618 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,617,487 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,955,860 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,458,521 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,883,477 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,672,618 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,094,637 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,490,806 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,601,735 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,266,053 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,336,725 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,301,337 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,169,176 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,721,180 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,671,448 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,432,996 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,154,221 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,096,612 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,182,139 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,616,215 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,470,983 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$28,676,093 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,341,238 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,175,907 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,128,646 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$11,808,820 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,269,519 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his high visibility from MAHA health policy initiatives, crossover appeal from his Trump endorsement, and March speculation from cousin Jack Schlossberg about a bid despite RFK's denials—though this diverges from CPAC and New Hampshire straw polls showing him at 0%. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37%, bolstered by incumbency and topping recent CPAC (53%) and New Hampshire surveys. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% odds have climbed amid praise for his hawkish stance in the ongoing Iran war tensions, highlighted in recent administration briefings, setting up a contested early primary shaped by 2026 midterms and foreign policy tests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$511,064,244
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his high visibility from MAHA health policy initiatives, crossover appeal from his Trump endorsement, and March speculation from cousin Jack Schlossberg about a bid despite RFK's denials—though this diverges from CPAC and New Hampshire straw polls showing him at 0%. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 37%, bolstered by incumbency and topping recent CPAC (53%) and New Hampshire surveys. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's 21% odds have climbed amid praise for his hawkish stance in the ongoing Iran war tensions, highlighted in recent administration briefings, setting up a contested early primary shaped by 2026 midterms and foreign policy tests.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$511,064,244
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $511.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.