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Pemilihan Umum·Jangka Menengah

Montana Senate Election Winner

icon for Montana Senate Election Winner
Pemilihan Umum·Jangka Menengah

Montana Senate Election Winner

Republican 74%

Independent 16.5%

Democrat 1.8%

Polymarket

$75,814 Vol.

Republican 74%

Independent 16.5%

Democrat 1.8%

Polymarket

$75,814 Vol.

icon for Republican

Republican

$38,200 Vol.

74%

icon for Independent

Independent

$2,101 Vol.

16%

icon for Democrat

Democrat

$35,514 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican dominance in Montana's federal elections, reinforced by the 2024 results and the state's voting patterns, underpins the 74% trader consensus for a Republican winner in the 2026 Senate race. Steve Daines's March withdrawal opened the seat and quickly consolidated support behind Kurt Alme, the U.S. attorney endorsed by both Daines and President Trump; Alme leads the June 2 Republican primary by wide margins. Independent Seth Bodnar draws measurable support in head-to-head polling as an alternative to the two parties, supporting the 16.4% independent share, while Democratic candidates remain low-profile with limited name recognition and trail significantly. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with historical base rates for the state.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$75,814
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican dominance in Montana's federal elections, reinforced by the 2024 results and the state's voting patterns, underpins the 74% trader consensus for a Republican winner in the 2026 Senate race. Steve Daines's March withdrawal opened the seat and quickly consolidated support behind Kurt Alme, the U.S. attorney endorsed by both Daines and President Trump; Alme leads the June 2 Republican primary by wide margins. Independent Seth Bodnar draws measurable support in head-to-head polling as an alternative to the two parties, supporting the 16.4% independent share, while Democratic candidates remain low-profile with limited name recognition and trail significantly. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Likely Republican, consistent with historical base rates for the state.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$75,814
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Montana Senate Election Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 3 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Republican" di 74%, diikuti oleh "Independent" di 17%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 74¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 74% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Montana Senate Election Winner" telah menghasilkan $75.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Oct 13, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Montana Senate Election Winner," jelajahi 3 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Montana Senate Election Winner" adalah "Republican" di 74%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 74% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Independent" di 17%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Montana Senate Election Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.