Montana’s Republican-leaning electorate and the March withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate race. Daines endorsed Kurt Alme shortly before the filing deadline, and Alme quickly secured additional backing from President Trump ahead of the June 2 primary. Early May polling shows Alme leading independent Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president running with support from former Senator Jon Tester, though Bodnar maintains some crossover appeal that accounts for the secondary market share. Democratic candidates in the June primary remain largely unknown to voters and trail significantly in fundraising, limiting their general-election prospects in a state where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. Primary outcomes and any shifts in statewide surveys could still influence final positioning before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 74%
Indépendant 16.3%
Démocrate 1.9%
$75,367 Vol.
$75,367 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
74%
Indépendant
16%
Démocrate
2%
Républicain 74%
Indépendant 16.3%
Démocrate 1.9%
$75,367 Vol.
$75,367 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Républicain
$38,022 Vol.
74%
Indépendant
$2,071 Vol.
16%
Démocrate
$35,275 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana’s Republican-leaning electorate and the March withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate race. Daines endorsed Kurt Alme shortly before the filing deadline, and Alme quickly secured additional backing from President Trump ahead of the June 2 primary. Early May polling shows Alme leading independent Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president running with support from former Senator Jon Tester, though Bodnar maintains some crossover appeal that accounts for the secondary market share. Democratic candidates in the June primary remain largely unknown to voters and trail significantly in fundraising, limiting their general-election prospects in a state where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. Primary outcomes and any shifts in statewide surveys could still influence final positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$75,367Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana’s Republican-leaning electorate and the March withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate race. Daines endorsed Kurt Alme shortly before the filing deadline, and Alme quickly secured additional backing from President Trump ahead of the June 2 primary. Early May polling shows Alme leading independent Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president running with support from former Senator Jon Tester, though Bodnar maintains some crossover appeal that accounts for the secondary market share. Democratic candidates in the June primary remain largely unknown to voters and trail significantly in fundraising, limiting their general-election prospects in a state where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. Primary outcomes and any shifts in statewide surveys could still influence final positioning before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$75,367Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana’s Republican-leaning electorate and the March withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for the 2026 Senate race. Daines endorsed Kurt Alme shortly before the filing deadline, and Alme quickly secured additional backing from President Trump ahead of the June 2 primary. Early May polling shows Alme leading independent Seth Bodnar, a former University of Montana president running with support from former Senator Jon Tester, though Bodnar maintains some crossover appeal that accounts for the secondary market share. Democratic candidates in the June primary remain largely unknown to voters and trail significantly in fundraising, limiting their general-election prospects in a state where Republicans have dominated recent federal contests. Primary outcomes and any shifts in statewide surveys could still influence final positioning before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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