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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 5.8%

Byron Donalds 4.6%

Polymarket

$476,829,758 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.6%

Marco Rubio 21.1%

Tucker Carlson 5.8%

Byron Donalds 4.6%

Polymarket

$476,829,758 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$6,583,277 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,453,753 Vol.

21%

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Tucker Carlson

$6,977,436 Vol.

6%

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Byron Donalds

$31,605,480 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$7,665,741 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,153,716 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,551,916 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,392,239 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$5,682,230 Vol.

1%

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Rand Paul

$15,607,623 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,176,439 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,820,007 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$13,734,739 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$21,532,663 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$3,640,135 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$6,946,265 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,067,472 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$8,813,333 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,042,053 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$10,744,374 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$12,582,917 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$3,743,511 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$27,802,016 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$15,244,195 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,069,030 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$27,605,134 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$1,136,579 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$20,829,592 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$28,333,443 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$1,557,604 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$27,362,834 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$14,205,569 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$22,209,953 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$9,413,386 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$31,544,683 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trump's cabinet nominations during the post-election transition have propelled Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the top of trader consensus for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his high-profile HHS secretary pick on November 14 and alignment with MAGA priorities on health policy and skepticism of federal agencies. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance follows at 36.6%, bolstered by his role as the party's presumed heir apparent after Trump's 2024 victory, with incumbency advantages in key swing states like Ohio. Marco Rubio's 21.1% share stems from his recent Secretary of State nomination, enhancing his foreign policy credentials and appeal to establishment donors. These early administration roles signal insider momentum, though primaries remain distant amid shifting alliances, endorsements, and potential scandals; historical precedents show vice presidents win nominations only about 30% of the time.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$476,829,758
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trump's cabinet nominations during the post-election transition have propelled Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the top of trader consensus for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his high-profile HHS secretary pick on November 14 and alignment with MAGA priorities on health policy and skepticism of federal agencies. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance follows at 36.6%, bolstered by his role as the party's presumed heir apparent after Trump's 2024 victory, with incumbency advantages in key swing states like Ohio. Marco Rubio's 21.1% share stems from his recent Secretary of State nomination, enhancing his foreign policy credentials and appeal to establishment donors. These early administration roles signal insider momentum, though primaries remain distant amid shifting alliances, endorsements, and potential scandals; historical precedents show vice presidents win nominations only about 30% of the time.

Trump's cabinet nominations during the post-election transition have propelled Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the top of trader consensus for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49%, reflecting his high-profile HHS secretary pick on November 14 and alignment with MAGA priorities on health policy and skepticism of federal agencies. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance follows at 36.6%, bolstered by his role as the party's presumed heir apparent after Trump's 2024 victory, with incumbency advantages in key swing states like Ohio. Marco Rubio's 21.1% share stems from his recent Secretary of State nomination, enhancing his foreign policy credentials and appeal to establishment donors. These early administration roles signal insider momentum, though primaries remain distant amid shifting alliances, endorsements, and potential scandals; historical precedents show vice presidents win nominations only about 30% of the time.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $476.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.