JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner odds at 18% implied probability as traders view him as the natural Republican successor following his vice presidential role in Donald Trump's incoming administration, bolstered by his national visibility from the 2024 campaign trail. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, reflecting Democratic speculation on California governors' historical paths to primaries amid post-election party soul-searching after Kamala Harris's defeat. Marco Rubio's 11% share stems from his Senate influence and potential cabinet positioning. This tight top tier highlights the market's early, speculative nature—over three years from primaries—with 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsements, economic performance, and emerging scandals as pivotal factors that could widen gaps or elevate dark horses like Josh Shapiro or Ron DeSantis.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 17.9%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,689,824 Vol.
$455,689,824 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

James Talarico
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.9%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,689,824 Vol.
$455,689,824 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

James Talarico
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance leads Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner odds at 18% implied probability as traders view him as the natural Republican successor following his vice presidential role in Donald Trump's incoming administration, bolstered by his national visibility from the 2024 campaign trail. Gavin Newsom trails closely at 17%, reflecting Democratic speculation on California governors' historical paths to primaries amid post-election party soul-searching after Kamala Harris's defeat. Marco Rubio's 11% share stems from his Senate influence and potential cabinet positioning. This tight top tier highlights the market's early, speculative nature—over three years from primaries—with 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsements, economic performance, and emerging scandals as pivotal factors that could widen gaps or elevate dark horses like Josh Shapiro or Ron DeSantis.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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