JD Vance and Gavin Newsom share the lead in trader consensus for the 2028 Presidential Election Winner at 17.8% and 17.0%, respectively, with Marco Rubio at 11.0%, capturing early post-2024 positioning in an open-seat race after Donald Trump's victory and term limits bar his re-run. Vance's Vice President-elect role solidifies his status as Republican heir apparent, bolstered by party unity and Trump administration momentum, while Newsom leverages his California governorship and national media critiques of the incoming GOP team to emerge as Democrats' top contender amid their post-Harris disarray. This tight field reflects distant primaries, lack of polling data, and uncertainty over 2026 midterms, economic performance, scandals, or endorsements that could tip electoral math in battlegrounds and define paths to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPresidential Election Winner 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,820,141 Vol.
$455,820,141 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 17.8%
Gavin Newsom 17.0%
Marco Rubio 11.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 4.7%
$455,820,141 Vol.
$455,820,141 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
11%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

JB Pritzker
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%

Andy Beshear
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

James Talarico
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
JD Vance and Gavin Newsom share the lead in trader consensus for the 2028 Presidential Election Winner at 17.8% and 17.0%, respectively, with Marco Rubio at 11.0%, capturing early post-2024 positioning in an open-seat race after Donald Trump's victory and term limits bar his re-run. Vance's Vice President-elect role solidifies his status as Republican heir apparent, bolstered by party unity and Trump administration momentum, while Newsom leverages his California governorship and national media critiques of the incoming GOP team to emerge as Democrats' top contender amid their post-Harris disarray. This tight field reflects distant primaries, lack of polling data, and uncertainty over 2026 midterms, economic performance, scandals, or endorsements that could tip electoral math in battlegrounds and define paths to victory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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