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Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Global Elections

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 18%

Carlos Álvarez 16.0%

Alfonso López Chau 10.2%

Polymarket

$4,595,990 Vol.

Rafael López Aliaga 33%

Keiko Fujimori 18%

Carlos Álvarez 16.0%

Alfonso López Chau 10.2%

Polymarket

$4,595,990 Vol.

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Rafael López Aliaga

$606,263 Vol.

33%

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Keiko Fujimori

$235,280 Vol.

18%

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Carlos Álvarez

$136,167 Vol.

16%

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Alfonso López Chau

$216,817 Vol.

10%

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Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$321,697 Vol.

10%

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Jorge Nieto

$659,945 Vol.

8%

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Ricardo Belmont

$201,741 Vol.

1%

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Carlos Espá

$154,339 Vol.

1%

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Wolfgang Grozo

$379,257 Vol.

1%

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César Acuña

$114,433 Vol.

1%

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Mesías Guevara

$88,340 Vol.

1%

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Yonhy Lescano

$158,951 Vol.

1%

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Marisol Pérez Tello

$187,485 Vol.

1%

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George Forsyth

$140,029 Vol.

1%

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Enrique Valderrama

$149,033 Vol.

<1%

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Mario Vizcarra

$138,100 Vol.

<1%

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José Williams

$67,762 Vol.

<1%

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Fernando Olivera

$105,419 Vol.

<1%

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Vladimir Cerrón

$131,781 Vol.

<1%

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Roberto Chiabra

$73,359 Vol.

<1%

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José Luna

$104,489 Vol.

<1%

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Rafael Belaúnde Llosa

$130,472 Vol.

<1%

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Fiorella Molinelli

$94,832 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, traders favor Rafael López Aliaga at 32.5% implied probability, driven by recent polls like Imasolu (March 13–16) showing him at 16.5% and Ipsos simulations where he dominates runoffs against Keiko Fujimori (37–41%) and others amid a fragmented 35-candidate field. Fujimori trails at 17.5% due to her established right-wing base but persistent anti-vote from three prior losses; comedian Carlos Álvarez (16%) gains from debate performances appealing to outsiders; Alfonso López Chau (10.2%) draws centre-left support despite corruption scrutiny. High undecided rates (15–25%) and blank-vote intentions signal volatility—right-wing consolidation or regional shifts outside Lima could secure López Aliaga the June 7 runoff spot.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,595,990
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) With Peru's April 12 first-round presidential vote just days away, traders favor Rafael López Aliaga at 32.5% implied probability, driven by recent polls like Imasolu (March 13–16) showing him at 16.5% and Ipsos simulations where he dominates runoffs against Keiko Fujimori (37–41%) and others amid a fragmented 35-candidate field. Fujimori trails at 17.5% due to her established right-wing base but persistent anti-vote from three prior losses; comedian Carlos Álvarez (16%) gains from debate performances appealing to outsiders; Alfonso López Chau (10.2%) draws centre-left support despite corruption scrutiny. High undecided rates (15–25%) and blank-vote intentions signal volatility—right-wing consolidation or regional shifts outside Lima could secure López Aliaga the June 7 runoff spot.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election.

This market includes any potential second round.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Volume
$4,595,990
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Related

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Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

34%
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Will Keiko Fujimori finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

30%
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Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

33%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Peru Presidential Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, followed by "Keiko Fujimori" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Peru Presidential Election Winner" has generated $4.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Peru Presidential Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" is "Rafael López Aliaga" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Keiko Fujimori" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Peru Presidential Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.