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Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner

Jo Rae Perkins 54%

David Brock Smith 35.1%

Russell McAlmond 5.1%

Joe Johnson 3.4%

Polymarket

$57,256 Vol.

Jo Rae Perkins 54%

David Brock Smith 35.1%

Russell McAlmond 5.1%

Joe Johnson 3.4%

Polymarket

$57,256 Vol.

Jo Rae Perkins

$10,742 Vol.

50%

David Brock Smith

$0 Vol.

42%

Russell McAlmond

$11,301 Vol.

5%

Joe Johnson

$7,056 Vol.

3%

David Burch

$22,261 Vol.

2%

Tim Skelton

$0 Vol.

1%

Douglas T. Muck Jr.

$5,897 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Jo Rae Perkins holds a narrow trader consensus lead at 51% implied probability in the Oregon Republican US Senate primary on May 19, driven by her name recognition and loyal base from prior statewide campaigns challenging Democratic incumbents Jeff Merkley in 2020 and Ron Wyden in 2022, despite lopsided general election losses. State Sen. David Brock Smith's March 3 campaign launch has propelled him to 39%, capitalizing on his incumbency in a rural coastal district, local conservative credentials, and recent media coverage emphasizing southwest Oregon roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects perceived primary momentum and grassroots strength in this multicandidate field, with others like Russell McAlmond lagging on lower visibility; turnout among Republican voters could tip the balance.

Jo Rae Perkins holds a narrow trader consensus lead at 51% implied probability in the Oregon Republican US Senate primary on May 19, driven by her name recognition and loyal base from prior statewide campaigns challenging Democratic incumbents Jeff Merkley in 2020 and Ron Wyden in 2022, despite lopsided general election losses. State Sen. David Brock Smith's March 3 campaign launch has propelled him to 39%, capitalizing on his incumbency in a rural coastal district, local conservative credentials, and recent media coverage emphasizing southwest Oregon roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects perceived primary momentum and grassroots strength in this multicandidate field, with others like Russell McAlmond lagging on lower visibility; turnout among Republican voters could tip the balance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Jo Rae Perkins holds a narrow trader consensus lead at 51% implied probability in the Oregon Republican US Senate primary on May 19, driven by her name recognition and loyal base from prior statewide campaigns challenging Democratic incumbents Jeff Merkley in 2020 and Ron Wyden in 2022, despite lopsided general election losses. State Sen. David Brock Smith's March 3 campaign launch has propelled him to 39%, capitalizing on his incumbency in a rural coastal district, local conservative credentials, and recent media coverage emphasizing southwest Oregon roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects perceived primary momentum and grassroots strength in this multicandidate field, with others like Russell McAlmond lagging on lower visibility; turnout among Republican voters could tip the balance.

Jo Rae Perkins holds a narrow trader consensus lead at 51% implied probability in the Oregon Republican US Senate primary on May 19, driven by her name recognition and loyal base from prior statewide campaigns challenging Democratic incumbents Jeff Merkley in 2020 and Ron Wyden in 2022, despite lopsided general election losses. State Sen. David Brock Smith's March 3 campaign launch has propelled him to 39%, capitalizing on his incumbency in a rural coastal district, local conservative credentials, and recent media coverage emphasizing southwest Oregon roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects perceived primary momentum and grassroots strength in this multicandidate field, with others like Russell McAlmond lagging on lower visibility; turnout among Republican voters could tip the balance.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 50%, followed by "David Brock Smith" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $57.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Jo Rae Perkins" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "David Brock Smith" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.