Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district, which carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+5 and delivered him a 13-point margin in 2024. Carey secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the May primary, while Don Leonard narrowly won the Democratic contest. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the district’s suburban and rural composition around Columbus. A summer poll showed Carey leading Leonard by five points in a three-way race, though the contest remains closer than historical baselines. Carey’s fundraising advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions reinforce trader consensus around his reelection prospects ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-15 House Election Winner
OH-15 House Election Winner
$15,912 Vol.
$15,912 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Carey (R)
77%
Don Leonard (D)
24%
$15,912 Vol.
$15,912 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Carey (R)
$5,178 Vol.
77%
Don Leonard (D)
$10,734 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district, which carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+5 and delivered him a 13-point margin in 2024. Carey secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the May primary, while Don Leonard narrowly won the Democratic contest. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the district’s suburban and rural composition around Columbus. A summer poll showed Carey leading Leonard by five points in a three-way race, though the contest remains closer than historical baselines. Carey’s fundraising advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions reinforce trader consensus around his reelection prospects ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$15,912End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district, which carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+5 and delivered him a 13-point margin in 2024. Carey secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the May primary, while Don Leonard narrowly won the Democratic contest. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the district’s suburban and rural composition around Columbus. A summer poll showed Carey leading Leonard by five points in a three-way race, though the contest remains closer than historical baselines. Carey’s fundraising advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions reinforce trader consensus around his reelection prospects ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,912End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district, which carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+5 and delivered him a 13-point margin in 2024. Carey secured the Republican nomination without opposition in the May primary, while Don Leonard narrowly won the Democratic contest. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the district’s suburban and rural composition around Columbus. A summer poll showed Carey leading Leonard by five points in a three-way race, though the contest remains closer than historical baselines. Carey’s fundraising advantage and the absence of major late-cycle disruptions reinforce trader consensus around his reelection prospects ahead of the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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