Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a clear edge in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with trader consensus favoring him at 76.5 percent. Carey advanced unopposed in the Republican primary while Democrat Don Leonard narrowly won his party’s May 5 primary against Adam Miller. The district’s Republican lean, reinforced by recent redistricting, Carey’s substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $3 million, and nonpartisan race ratings classifying the seat as Likely or Solid Republican have anchored expectations. A mid-summer Democratic poll showed Leonard within single digits, yet no major developments in the past month have shifted the underlying dynamics.