Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio's 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, supported by the district's Republican lean and multiple nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Carey advanced unopposed through the May 5 Republican primary, while Democrat Don Leonard narrowly won his party's nomination. Recent polling from summer 2026 showed Carey leading Leonard by modest margins in head-to-head matchups, consistent with historical patterns for incumbents in similar districts. Fundraising data and endorsements further bolster Carey's standing among traders, though Leonard's campaign has narrowed the gap in some surveys, leaving room for shifts before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-15 House Election Winner
OH-15 House Election Winner
$15,727 Vol.
$15,727 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Carey (R)
76%
Don Leonard (D)
24%
$15,727 Vol.
$15,727 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Carey (R)
$5,062 Vol.
76%
Don Leonard (D)
$10,664 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio's 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, supported by the district's Republican lean and multiple nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Carey advanced unopposed through the May 5 Republican primary, while Democrat Don Leonard narrowly won his party's nomination. Recent polling from summer 2026 showed Carey leading Leonard by modest margins in head-to-head matchups, consistent with historical patterns for incumbents in similar districts. Fundraising data and endorsements further bolster Carey's standing among traders, though Leonard's campaign has narrowed the gap in some surveys, leaving room for shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$15,727End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio's 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, supported by the district's Republican lean and multiple nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Carey advanced unopposed through the May 5 Republican primary, while Democrat Don Leonard narrowly won his party's nomination. Recent polling from summer 2026 showed Carey leading Leonard by modest margins in head-to-head matchups, consistent with historical patterns for incumbents in similar districts. Fundraising data and endorsements further bolster Carey's standing among traders, though Leonard's campaign has narrowed the gap in some surveys, leaving room for shifts before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,727End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio's 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, supported by the district's Republican lean and multiple nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Carey advanced unopposed through the May 5 Republican primary, while Democrat Don Leonard narrowly won his party's nomination. Recent polling from summer 2026 showed Carey leading Leonard by modest margins in head-to-head matchups, consistent with historical patterns for incumbents in similar districts. Fundraising data and endorsements further bolster Carey's standing among traders, though Leonard's campaign has narrowed the gap in some surveys, leaving room for shifts before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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