**Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio's 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, reflected in the 74.5% trader consensus on prediction markets.** The district carries an R+5 partisan voter index under the new congressional map adopted in 2025, and expert ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely or Solid Republican. Carey secured the GOP nomination without opposition in the May 5 primary, while Democrat Don Leonard narrowly won his party's primary. A summer 2026 poll showed Carey leading Leonard by single digits amid a national environment that prompted modest rating adjustments, though the seat's underlying Republican tilt and incumbency continue to anchor market probabilities for a Carey victory. Early voting began in early October with no major late-breaking developments shifting the outlook.