Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, backed by the district’s R+5 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Don Leonard secured the Democratic nomination in the May primary but trails in available polling, with a June survey showing Carey ahead 45-40 percent and an August poll indicating a similar 41-37 percent margin. Carey’s substantial fundraising advantage and endorsements from labor groups reinforce his edge, while race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or solid Republican. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-15 House Election Winner
OH-15 House Election Winner
$15,899 Vol.
$15,899 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Carey (R)
75%
Don Leonard (D)
24%
$15,899 Vol.
$15,899 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Carey (R)
$5,165 Vol.
75%
Don Leonard (D)
$10,734 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, backed by the district’s R+5 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Don Leonard secured the Democratic nomination in the May primary but trails in available polling, with a June survey showing Carey ahead 45-40 percent and an August poll indicating a similar 41-37 percent margin. Carey’s substantial fundraising advantage and endorsements from labor groups reinforce his edge, while race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or solid Republican. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$15,899End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, backed by the district’s R+5 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Don Leonard secured the Democratic nomination in the May primary but trails in available polling, with a June survey showing Carey ahead 45-40 percent and an August poll indicating a similar 41-37 percent margin. Carey’s substantial fundraising advantage and endorsements from labor groups reinforce his edge, while race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or solid Republican. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,899End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Mike Carey holds a strong position in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, backed by the district’s R+5 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles. Don Leonard secured the Democratic nomination in the May primary but trails in available polling, with a June survey showing Carey ahead 45-40 percent and an August poll indicating a similar 41-37 percent margin. Carey’s substantial fundraising advantage and endorsements from labor groups reinforce his edge, while race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as likely or solid Republican. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions