In Ohio's 14th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean (R+12 Cook PVI) and incumbent Max Miller's dominant position after his 2022 landslide win by 40 points. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and public trackers like Race to the WH, show Miller leading Democratic challenger Trista Lederman by 25–35 points, supported by his fundraising edge ($1.2M cash-on-hand vs. $150K) and Trump endorsement. No significant developments in the past week have narrowed the gap; the race is off competitive watchlists, with national turnout dynamics as the main uncertainty ahead of the November 5 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedOH-14 House Election Winner
OH-14 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Ohio's 14th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean (R+12 Cook PVI) and incumbent Max Miller's dominant position after his 2022 landslide win by 40 points. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and public trackers like Race to the WH, show Miller leading Democratic challenger Trista Lederman by 25–35 points, supported by his fundraising edge ($1.2M cash-on-hand vs. $150K) and Trump endorsement. No significant developments in the past week have narrowed the gap; the race is off competitive watchlists, with national turnout dynamics as the main uncertainty ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).In Ohio's 14th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean (R+12 Cook PVI) and incumbent Max Miller's dominant position after his 2022 landslide win by 40 points. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and public trackers like Race to the WH, show Miller leading Democratic challenger Trista Lederman by 25–35 points, supported by his fundraising edge ($1.2M cash-on-hand vs. $150K) and Trump endorsement. No significant developments in the past week have narrowed the gap; the race is off competitive watchlists, with national turnout dynamics as the main uncertainty ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...In Ohio's 14th Congressional District House race, trader consensus strongly favors the Republican Party at 87% implied probability, reflecting the district's solid Republican lean (R+12 Cook PVI) and incumbent Max Miller's dominant position after his 2022 landslide win by 40 points. Recent polling averages, including internal surveys and public trackers like Race to the WH, show Miller leading Democratic challenger Trista Lederman by 25–35 points, supported by his fundraising edge ($1.2M cash-on-hand vs. $150K) and Trump endorsement. No significant developments in the past week have narrowed the gap; the race is off competitive watchlists, with national turnout dynamics as the main uncertainty ahead of the November 5 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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