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Politics·ICE

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·ICE

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

Derek Merrin 56%

Madison Sheahan 15%

Alea Nadeem 14.5%

Josh Williams 11.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Derek Merrin 56%

Madison Sheahan 15%

Alea Nadeem 14.5%

Josh Williams 11.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Derek Merrin

$2,495 Vol.

56%

Madison Sheahan

$1,631 Vol.

15%

Alea Nadeem

$0 Vol.

14%

Josh Williams

$0 Vol.

12%

Jacob Frost

$0 Vol.

7%

Wayne Kinsel

$0 Vol.

6%

Anthony Campbell

$0 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's trader consensus lead at 56% in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his near-victory over incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024, top fundraising with $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, and prior Trump endorsement, bolstering his rematch appeal in the redrawn Republican-leaning district. State Rep. Josh Williams trails at 13.2% but gained momentum in a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging from second to first with 155 votes post-debate versus Merrin's drop to 47. Madison Sheahan's 15% reflects immigration credentials from her ICE tenure, tempered by Lucas County GOP's January residency endorsement rule; Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem holds 14.4% on strong fundraising. With the May 5 primary approaching, no public polls exist, leaving endorsements and turnout as pivotal.

Derek Merrin's trader consensus lead at 56% in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his near-victory over incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024, top fundraising with $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, and prior Trump endorsement, bolstering his rematch appeal in the redrawn Republican-leaning district. State Rep. Josh Williams trails at 13.2% but gained momentum in a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging from second to first with 155 votes post-debate versus Merrin's drop to 47. Madison Sheahan's 15% reflects immigration credentials from her ICE tenure, tempered by Lucas County GOP's January residency endorsement rule; Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem holds 14.4% on strong fundraising. With the May 5 primary approaching, no public polls exist, leaving endorsements and turnout as pivotal.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's trader consensus lead at 56% in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his near-victory over incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024, top fundraising with $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, and prior Trump endorsement, bolstering his rematch appeal in the redrawn Republican-leaning district. State Rep. Josh Williams trails at 13.2% but gained momentum in a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging from second to first with 155 votes post-debate versus Merrin's drop to 47. Madison Sheahan's 15% reflects immigration credentials from her ICE tenure, tempered by Lucas County GOP's January residency endorsement rule; Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem holds 14.4% on strong fundraising. With the May 5 primary approaching, no public polls exist, leaving endorsements and turnout as pivotal.

Derek Merrin's trader consensus lead at 56% in the OH-09 Republican primary stems from his near-victory over incumbent Marcy Kaptur in 2024, top fundraising with $357,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, and prior Trump endorsement, bolstering his rematch appeal in the redrawn Republican-leaning district. State Rep. Josh Williams trails at 13.2% but gained momentum in a March 29 Greater Toledo Area Right to Life forum straw poll, surging from second to first with 155 votes post-debate versus Merrin's drop to 47. Madison Sheahan's 15% reflects immigration credentials from her ICE tenure, tempered by Lucas County GOP's January residency endorsement rule; Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem holds 14.4% on strong fundraising. With the May 5 primary approaching, no public polls exist, leaving endorsements and turnout as pivotal.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Derek Merrin" at 56%, followed by "Madison Sheahan" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Derek Merrin" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Madison Sheahan" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.