Tom Suozzi’s position as the Democratic incumbent, bolstered by his 2024 narrow victory in the same rematch and strong primary performance in June, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. The district’s suburban Long Island and Queens footprint showed a slight Democratic edge in House voting despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there, and Suozzi has maintained separation from national party positions on immigration and crime through votes such as the Laken Riley Act. Republican challenger Mike LiPetri secured his nomination easily but trails in fundraising and faces coordinated attack advertising from groups including a Trump-aligned super PAC that spent nearly $8 million in September. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with the 92% implied probability. Late shifts remain possible through intensified turnout efforts, additional outside spending, or unforeseen national political developments before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,567 Vol.
$26,567 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Tom Suozzi (D)
92%
Mike LiPetri (R)
8%
$26,567 Vol.
$26,567 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Tom Suozzi (D)
$12,642 Vol.
92%
Mike LiPetri (R)
$13,925 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom Suozzi’s position as the Democratic incumbent, bolstered by his 2024 narrow victory in the same rematch and strong primary performance in June, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. The district’s suburban Long Island and Queens footprint showed a slight Democratic edge in House voting despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there, and Suozzi has maintained separation from national party positions on immigration and crime through votes such as the Laken Riley Act. Republican challenger Mike LiPetri secured his nomination easily but trails in fundraising and faces coordinated attack advertising from groups including a Trump-aligned super PAC that spent nearly $8 million in September. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with the 92% implied probability. Late shifts remain possible through intensified turnout efforts, additional outside spending, or unforeseen national political developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$26,567End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom Suozzi’s position as the Democratic incumbent, bolstered by his 2024 narrow victory in the same rematch and strong primary performance in June, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. The district’s suburban Long Island and Queens footprint showed a slight Democratic edge in House voting despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there, and Suozzi has maintained separation from national party positions on immigration and crime through votes such as the Laken Riley Act. Republican challenger Mike LiPetri secured his nomination easily but trails in fundraising and faces coordinated attack advertising from groups including a Trump-aligned super PAC that spent nearly $8 million in September. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with the 92% implied probability. Late shifts remain possible through intensified turnout efforts, additional outside spending, or unforeseen national political developments before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,567End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Tom Suozzi’s position as the Democratic incumbent, bolstered by his 2024 narrow victory in the same rematch and strong primary performance in June, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection in New York’s 3rd Congressional District. The district’s suburban Long Island and Queens footprint showed a slight Democratic edge in House voting despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there, and Suozzi has maintained separation from national party positions on immigration and crime through votes such as the Laken Riley Act. Republican challenger Mike LiPetri secured his nomination easily but trails in fundraising and faces coordinated attack advertising from groups including a Trump-aligned super PAC that spent nearly $8 million in September. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, consistent with the 92% implied probability. Late shifts remain possible through intensified turnout efforts, additional outside spending, or unforeseen national political developments before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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