Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the November 3 general election for New York’s 3rd congressional district, reflecting his strong primary performance, established name recognition on Long Island, and the seat’s recent Democratic lean in House contests despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there. The rematch against Republican Mike LiPetri, who secured his nomination in June, has drawn significant outside spending, including nearly $8 million in recent attack ads from a Trump-aligned super PAC targeting Suozzi’s record. Forecasters rate the race as Lean Democratic, and trader consensus at 92% for Suozzi aligns with polling models projecting a comfortable margin. Late developments such as intensified Republican turnout efforts or national economic shifts could narrow the gap, but the short timeline before Election Day limits opportunities for substantial movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,567 Vol.
$26,567 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Tom Suozzi (D)
92%
Mike LiPetri (R)
8%
$26,567 Vol.
$26,567 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Tom Suozzi (D)
$12,642 Vol.
92%
Mike LiPetri (R)
$13,925 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the November 3 general election for New York’s 3rd congressional district, reflecting his strong primary performance, established name recognition on Long Island, and the seat’s recent Democratic lean in House contests despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there. The rematch against Republican Mike LiPetri, who secured his nomination in June, has drawn significant outside spending, including nearly $8 million in recent attack ads from a Trump-aligned super PAC targeting Suozzi’s record. Forecasters rate the race as Lean Democratic, and trader consensus at 92% for Suozzi aligns with polling models projecting a comfortable margin. Late developments such as intensified Republican turnout efforts or national economic shifts could narrow the gap, but the short timeline before Election Day limits opportunities for substantial movement.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$26,567End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the November 3 general election for New York’s 3rd congressional district, reflecting his strong primary performance, established name recognition on Long Island, and the seat’s recent Democratic lean in House contests despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there. The rematch against Republican Mike LiPetri, who secured his nomination in June, has drawn significant outside spending, including nearly $8 million in recent attack ads from a Trump-aligned super PAC targeting Suozzi’s record. Forecasters rate the race as Lean Democratic, and trader consensus at 92% for Suozzi aligns with polling models projecting a comfortable margin. Late developments such as intensified Republican turnout efforts or national economic shifts could narrow the gap, but the short timeline before Election Day limits opportunities for substantial movement.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,567End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a commanding position in the November 3 general election for New York’s 3rd congressional district, reflecting his strong primary performance, established name recognition on Long Island, and the seat’s recent Democratic lean in House contests despite Donald Trump’s narrow 2024 presidential win there. The rematch against Republican Mike LiPetri, who secured his nomination in June, has drawn significant outside spending, including nearly $8 million in recent attack ads from a Trump-aligned super PAC targeting Suozzi’s record. Forecasters rate the race as Lean Democratic, and trader consensus at 92% for Suozzi aligns with polling models projecting a comfortable margin. Late developments such as intensified Republican turnout efforts or national economic shifts could narrow the gap, but the short timeline before Election Day limits opportunities for substantial movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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