**Incumbent Democrat Tom Suozzi holds a strong position in the November 3, 2026, general election for New York’s 3rd congressional district, a rematch against Republican Michael J. LiPetri Jr.** Suozzi secured the Democratic nomination in the June 23 primary with roughly 80% of the vote and benefits from name recognition, prior service as Nassau County executive and mayor, and his role co-chairing the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. LiPetri, a former state assembly member, won his primary decisively but faces the challenges of challenging an established incumbent in a district that leans slightly Democratic. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, with models projecting Suozzi margins of roughly 6–18 points. Fundraising data shows Suozzi with a significant edge, while the 2024 result (Suozzi 51.7%–48.1%) and the district’s recent voting patterns underpin trader consensus around the current pricing. No major late-cycle shifts have altered the competitive baseline in recent weeks.