Greg Murphy holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NC-03 House race due to his incumbency in a Republican-leaning district and substantial fundraising edge. The seat, redrawn in October 2025 to include Duplin, Greene, Lenoir, Jones, Onslow, Pitt, Wayne, Wilson, and most of Sampson counties, remains rated Solid or Safe Republican by forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Murphy, who won reelection with 77.4% in 2024, faces Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary but trails significantly in campaign resources with roughly $223,000 raised compared to Murphy's $2.3 million. No major late-cycle shifts have altered the baseline partisan advantage or polling trajectory in the six weeks before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNC-03 House Election Winner
NC-03 House Election Winner
$20,442 Vol.
$20,442 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Greg Murphy (R)
87%
Raymond Smith Jr. (D)
13%
$20,442 Vol.
$20,442 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Greg Murphy (R)
$15,469 Vol.
87%
Raymond Smith Jr. (D)
$4,972 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Murphy holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NC-03 House race due to his incumbency in a Republican-leaning district and substantial fundraising edge. The seat, redrawn in October 2025 to include Duplin, Greene, Lenoir, Jones, Onslow, Pitt, Wayne, Wilson, and most of Sampson counties, remains rated Solid or Safe Republican by forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Murphy, who won reelection with 77.4% in 2024, faces Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary but trails significantly in campaign resources with roughly $223,000 raised compared to Murphy's $2.3 million. No major late-cycle shifts have altered the baseline partisan advantage or polling trajectory in the six weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$20,442End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Murphy holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NC-03 House race due to his incumbency in a Republican-leaning district and substantial fundraising edge. The seat, redrawn in October 2025 to include Duplin, Greene, Lenoir, Jones, Onslow, Pitt, Wayne, Wilson, and most of Sampson counties, remains rated Solid or Safe Republican by forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Murphy, who won reelection with 77.4% in 2024, faces Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary but trails significantly in campaign resources with roughly $223,000 raised compared to Murphy's $2.3 million. No major late-cycle shifts have altered the baseline partisan advantage or polling trajectory in the six weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,442End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Murphy holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NC-03 House race due to his incumbency in a Republican-leaning district and substantial fundraising edge. The seat, redrawn in October 2025 to include Duplin, Greene, Lenoir, Jones, Onslow, Pitt, Wayne, Wilson, and most of Sampson counties, remains rated Solid or Safe Republican by forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Murphy, who won reelection with 77.4% in 2024, faces Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary but trails significantly in campaign resources with roughly $223,000 raised compared to Murphy's $2.3 million. No major late-cycle shifts have altered the baseline partisan advantage or polling trajectory in the six weeks before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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