Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
$382,939 Vol.
Cut–Pause–Pause 68%
Cut–Pause–Cut 29%
Cut–Cut–Cut 2.4%
Cut–Cut–Pause 1.4%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Pause–Pause
$31,258 Vol.
68%
Cut–Pause–Pause
$31,258 Vol.
68%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$19,710 Vol.
29%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$19,710 Vol.
29%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$106,602 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$106,602 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$40,779 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$40,779 Vol.
1%
Other
$35,014 Vol.
1%
Other
$35,014 Vol.
1%
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Created At: Nov 4, 2025, 5:12 PM UTC
Volume
$382,939End Date
Mar 18, 2026Created At
Nov 4, 2025, 5:12 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...$382,939 Vol.
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Cut–Pause–Pause 68%
Cut–Pause–Cut 29%
Cut–Cut–Cut 2.4%
Cut–Cut–Pause 1.4%
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Cut–Pause–Pause
$31,258 Vol.
68%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$19,710 Vol.
29%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$106,602 Vol.
2%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$40,779 Vol.
1%
Other
$35,014 Vol.
1%
About
Volume
$382,939End Date
Mar 18, 2026Created At
Nov 4, 2025, 5:12 PM UTCResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Beware of external links.
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