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Next leader out of power before 2027?

Market icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Hungary PM 53%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 18%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 6.3%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,703,412 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM 53%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 18%

Netanyahu - Israel PM 6.3%

Starmer - UK PM 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,703,412 Vol.

Orbán - Hungary PM

$21,960 Vol.

53%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$16,015 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$572,542 Vol.

6%

Starmer - UK PM

$557,208 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$242,951 Vol.

3%

Putin - Russia President

$350,584 Vol.

2%

None before 2027

$9,948 Vol.

2%

Petro - Colombia President

$12,654 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$11,005 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$203,744 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$67,941 Vol.

1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$58,110 Vol.

1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$39,413 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$11,107 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$20,309 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$75,554 Vol.

1%

Newsom - California Governor

$113,161 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$40,424 Vol.

1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$58,445 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$34,808 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$39,890 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$64,315 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$27,985 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$24,764 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$28,572 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 53.5%, driven by escalating mass protests in Budapest over the past week against his sovereignty protection law, which critics decry as curbing civil society and media freedom—the largest demonstrations since 2010 amid eroding Fidesz support and EU rule-of-law tensions. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting Cuba's deepening economic crisis with nationwide blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily, food shortages, and fresh protests in Santiago suppressed last month, fueling speculation on leadership change despite no near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 6.3% amid Gaza war fatigue, hostage protests, and fragile coalition risks, though recent military actions against Hezbollah provide some ballast; other leaders like UK PM Keir Starmer or Russia President Vladimir Putin see minimal odds (<5%) due to recent electoral mandates or entrenched authority, underscoring trader focus on acute instability signals.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,703,412
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 53.5%, driven by escalating mass protests in Budapest over the past week against his sovereignty protection law, which critics decry as curbing civil society and media freedom—the largest demonstrations since 2010 amid eroding Fidesz support and EU rule-of-law tensions. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting Cuba's deepening economic crisis with nationwide blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily, food shortages, and fresh protests in Santiago suppressed last month, fueling speculation on leadership change despite no near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 6.3% amid Gaza war fatigue, hostage protests, and fragile coalition risks, though recent military actions against Hezbollah provide some ballast; other leaders like UK PM Keir Starmer or Russia President Vladimir Putin see minimal odds (<5%) due to recent electoral mandates or entrenched authority, underscoring trader focus on acute instability signals.

Trader consensus favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 53.5%, driven by escalating mass protests in Budapest over the past week against his sovereignty protection law, which critics decry as curbing civil society and media freedom—the largest demonstrations since 2010 amid eroding Fidesz support and EU rule-of-law tensions. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting Cuba's deepening economic crisis with nationwide blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily, food shortages, and fresh protests in Santiago suppressed last month, fueling speculation on leadership change despite no near-term elections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 6.3% amid Gaza war fatigue, hostage protests, and fragile coalition risks, though recent military actions against Hezbollah provide some ballast; other leaders like UK PM Keir Starmer or Russia President Vladimir Putin see minimal odds (<5%) due to recent electoral mandates or entrenched authority, underscoring trader focus on acute instability signals.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 53%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027?" has generated $2.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.