Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's bid for re-election to represent New Mexico drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at 94.5%, following the February 2026 disqualification of all Republican candidates for failing to meet voter signature requirements for ballot access. This marks the first modern U.S. Senate race in the state without a major-party GOP opponent on the ballot, solidifying Luján's position in a reliably Democratic state where the last Republican Senate win came in 2002. With the June 2 primary approaching and no significant Democratic challengers, markets price in minimal competition ahead of the November general election. Scenarios like a viable write-in campaign, Luján withdrawal, scandal, or health issues could shift odds, though such upsets remain improbable given historical precedents and institutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew Mexico Senate Election Winner
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
$13,421 Vol.
$13,421 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
3%
$13,421 Vol.
$13,421 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$7,856 Vol.
95%
Republican
$5,565 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's bid for re-election to represent New Mexico drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at 94.5%, following the February 2026 disqualification of all Republican candidates for failing to meet voter signature requirements for ballot access. This marks the first modern U.S. Senate race in the state without a major-party GOP opponent on the ballot, solidifying Luján's position in a reliably Democratic state where the last Republican Senate win came in 2002. With the June 2 primary approaching and no significant Democratic challengers, markets price in minimal competition ahead of the November general election. Scenarios like a viable write-in campaign, Luján withdrawal, scandal, or health issues could shift odds, though such upsets remain improbable given historical precedents and institutional barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$13,421End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's bid for re-election to represent New Mexico drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at 94.5%, following the February 2026 disqualification of all Republican candidates for failing to meet voter signature requirements for ballot access. This marks the first modern U.S. Senate race in the state without a major-party GOP opponent on the ballot, solidifying Luján's position in a reliably Democratic state where the last Republican Senate win came in 2002. With the June 2 primary approaching and no significant Democratic challengers, markets price in minimal competition ahead of the November general election. Scenarios like a viable write-in campaign, Luján withdrawal, scandal, or health issues could shift odds, though such upsets remain improbable given historical precedents and institutional barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$13,421End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Luján's bid for re-election to represent New Mexico drives the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats at 94.5%, following the February 2026 disqualification of all Republican candidates for failing to meet voter signature requirements for ballot access. This marks the first modern U.S. Senate race in the state without a major-party GOP opponent on the ballot, solidifying Luján's position in a reliably Democratic state where the last Republican Senate win came in 2002. With the June 2 primary approaching and no significant Democratic challengers, markets price in minimal competition ahead of the November general election. Scenarios like a viable write-in campaign, Luján withdrawal, scandal, or health issues could shift odds, though such upsets remain improbable given historical precedents and institutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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