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Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Dan Koh 75%

Seth Moulton 11.2%

Tram Nguyen 4.9%

Diann Slavit Baylis 3.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Dan Koh 75%

Seth Moulton 11.2%

Tram Nguyen 4.9%

Diann Slavit Baylis 3.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Dan Koh

$3,412 Vol.

75%

Seth Moulton

$0 Vol.

11%

Tram Nguyen

$0 Vol.

5%

Diann Slavit Baylis

$0 Vol.

4%

Jamie Zahlaway Belsito

$1,705 Vol.

3%

Dominick Pangallo

$0 Vol.

3%

John Beccia

$0 Vol.

2%

Rick Jakious

$0 Vol.

2%

Rachel Creemers

$0 Vol.

2%

Mariah Lancaster

$0 Vol.

8%

Beth Andres-Beck

$1,341 Vol.

<1%

Kevin Larivee

$1,228 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Dan Koh at 74.5% implied probability to win Massachusetts's 6th Congressional District Democratic primary on September 3, reflecting his commanding lead in recent internal and public polls, superior fundraising totals exceeding $1 million, and key endorsements from local party leaders and progressive groups. Incumbent Seth Moulton trails at 11.3%, pressured by voter dissatisfaction over his centrist stances on foreign policy and Israel aid amid primary turnout favoring challengers. Mariah Lancaster's 8.6% share stems from grassroots momentum in union-heavy areas, while others like Kevin Larivee linger below 10% without comparable polling or resources. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming candidate forums could influence undecided voters in this low-turnout primary.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,685
End Date
Sep 15, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Dan Koh at 74.5% implied probability to win Massachusetts's 6th Congressional District Democratic primary on September 3, reflecting his commanding lead in recent internal and public polls, superior fundraising totals exceeding $1 million, and key endorsements from local party leaders and progressive groups. Incumbent Seth Moulton trails at 11.3%, pressured by voter dissatisfaction over his centrist stances on foreign policy and Israel aid amid primary turnout favoring challengers. Mariah Lancaster's 8.6% share stems from grassroots momentum in union-heavy areas, while others like Kevin Larivee linger below 10% without comparable polling or resources. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming candidate forums could influence undecided voters in this low-turnout primary.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Dan Koh at 74.5% implied probability to win Massachusetts's 6th Congressional District Democratic primary on September 3, reflecting his commanding lead in recent internal and public polls, superior fundraising totals exceeding $1 million, and key endorsements from local party leaders and progressive groups. Incumbent Seth Moulton trails at 11.3%, pressured by voter dissatisfaction over his centrist stances on foreign policy and Israel aid amid primary turnout favoring challengers. Mariah Lancaster's 8.6% share stems from grassroots momentum in union-heavy areas, while others like Kevin Larivee linger below 10% without comparable polling or resources. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming candidate forums could influence undecided voters in this low-turnout primary.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dan Koh" at 75%, followed by "Seth Moulton" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 25, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Dan Koh" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Seth Moulton" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.