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Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Market icon
Politics·Mayor

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Karen Bass 42%

Nithya Raman 37%

Spencer Pratt 11%

Rae Huang 3.4%

Polymarket

$687,166 Vol.

Karen Bass 42%

Nithya Raman 37%

Spencer Pratt 11%

Rae Huang 3.4%

Polymarket

$687,166 Vol.

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Karen Bass

$21,295 Vol.

42%

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Nithya Raman

$3,576 Vol.

37%

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Spencer Pratt

$23,072 Vol.

11%

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Rae Huang

$9,380 Vol.

3%

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Gina Viola

$75,420 Vol.

2%

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Rick Caruso

$423,662 Vol.

1%

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Asaad Alnajjar

$27,715 Vol.

1%

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Adam Miller

$81,394 Vol.

1%

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Austin Beutner

$4,929 Vol.

<1%

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Monica Rodriguez

$2,240 Vol.

<1%

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Lindsey Horvath

$14,484 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim trader consensus lead at 42% implied probability over City Councilmember Nithya Raman's 37% for the Los Angeles mayoral election, reflecting recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls showing Bass at 19-25% amid 26% undecideds and her net -25 favorable rating due to perceived mishandling of wildfires and homelessness. Raman's positive favorables (+3) as a DSA-backed progressive challenger split the left vote in the crowded 14-candidate nonpartisan primary on June 2, while reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 10.5% share stems from post-Palisades Fire activism appealing to moderates. High undecideds and upcoming debates could consolidate support, with top-two advancing to November if no majority.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim trader consensus lead at 42% implied probability over City Councilmember Nithya Raman's 37% for the Los Angeles mayoral election, reflecting recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls showing Bass at 19-25% amid 26% undecideds and her net -25 favorable rating due to perceived mishandling of wildfires and homelessness. Raman's positive favorables (+3) as a DSA-backed progressive challenger split the left vote in the crowded 14-candidate nonpartisan primary on June 2, while reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 10.5% share stems from post-Palisades Fire activism appealing to moderates. High undecideds and upcoming debates could consolidate support, with top-two advancing to November if no majority.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim trader consensus lead at 42% implied probability over City Councilmember Nithya Raman's 37% for the Los Angeles mayoral election, reflecting recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls showing Bass at 19-25% amid 26% undecideds and her net -25 favorable rating due to perceived mishandling of wildfires and homelessness. Raman's positive favorables (+3) as a DSA-backed progressive challenger split the left vote in the crowded 14-candidate nonpartisan primary on June 2, while reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 10.5% share stems from post-Palisades Fire activism appealing to moderates. High undecideds and upcoming debates could consolidate support, with top-two advancing to November if no majority.

Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a slim trader consensus lead at 42% implied probability over City Councilmember Nithya Raman's 37% for the Los Angeles mayoral election, reflecting recent LA Times/Berkeley IGS and Emerson polls showing Bass at 19-25% amid 26% undecideds and her net -25 favorable rating due to perceived mishandling of wildfires and homelessness. Raman's positive favorables (+3) as a DSA-backed progressive challenger split the left vote in the crowded 14-candidate nonpartisan primary on June 2, while reality TV star Spencer Pratt's 10.5% share stems from post-Palisades Fire activism appealing to moderates. High undecideds and upcoming debates could consolidate support, with top-two advancing to November if no majority.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karen Bass" at 42%, followed by "Nithya Raman" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $687.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Karen Bass" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nithya Raman" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.