Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids maintains a double-digit lead in KS-03 polls, with the latest Emerson College survey (October 23-28) showing her at 52% against Republican challenger Jefferson Davis's 41%, aligning with 538's 84% win probability and trader consensus pricing Democrats at 87%. This reflects Davids' consistent overperformance in the competitive district—winning by 10 points in 2022 and 14 in 2020—bolstered by superior fundraising and moderate appeal amid limited national Republican investment. No major developments have emerged in the past week, with early voting strong and the November 5 general election approaching, underscoring her incumbency edge barring late surprises like scandals or turnout shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedKS-03 House Election Winner
KS-03 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
87%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids maintains a double-digit lead in KS-03 polls, with the latest Emerson College survey (October 23-28) showing her at 52% against Republican challenger Jefferson Davis's 41%, aligning with 538's 84% win probability and trader consensus pricing Democrats at 87%. This reflects Davids' consistent overperformance in the competitive district—winning by 10 points in 2022 and 14 in 2020—bolstered by superior fundraising and moderate appeal amid limited national Republican investment. No major developments have emerged in the past week, with early voting strong and the November 5 general election approaching, underscoring her incumbency edge barring late surprises like scandals or turnout shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids maintains a double-digit lead in KS-03 polls, with the latest Emerson College survey (October 23-28) showing her at 52% against Republican challenger Jefferson Davis's 41%, aligning with 538's 84% win probability and trader consensus pricing Democrats at 87%. This reflects Davids' consistent overperformance in the competitive district—winning by 10 points in 2022 and 14 in 2020—bolstered by superior fundraising and moderate appeal amid limited national Republican investment. No major developments have emerged in the past week, with early voting strong and the November 5 general election approaching, underscoring her incumbency edge barring late surprises like scandals or turnout shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids maintains a double-digit lead in KS-03 polls, with the latest Emerson College survey (October 23-28) showing her at 52% against Republican challenger Jefferson Davis's 41%, aligning with 538's 84% win probability and trader consensus pricing Democrats at 87%. This reflects Davids' consistent overperformance in the competitive district—winning by 10 points in 2022 and 14 in 2020—bolstered by superior fundraising and moderate appeal amid limited national Republican investment. No major developments have emerged in the past week, with early voting strong and the November 5 general election approaching, underscoring her incumbency edge barring late surprises like scandals or turnout shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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