Incumbent Rep. Brett Guthrie (R) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+20) and his history of lopsided victories, including a 73%-27% win in 2024. With over $3.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing challengers in the May 19 Republican primary and underfunded Democratic contenders like William Compton—Guthrie benefits from incumbency and his role as Energy and Commerce Committee chair. No major developments have shifted odds in the past 30 days, but a primary upset, personal scandal, or Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-02 House Election Winner
KY-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$2,358 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Brett Guthrie (R) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+20) and his history of lopsided victories, including a 73%-27% win in 2024. With over $3.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing challengers in the May 19 Republican primary and underfunded Democratic contenders like William Compton—Guthrie benefits from incumbency and his role as Energy and Commerce Committee chair. No major developments have shifted odds in the past 30 days, but a primary upset, personal scandal, or Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,358End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Brett Guthrie (R) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+20) and his history of lopsided victories, including a 73%-27% win in 2024. With over $3.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing challengers in the May 19 Republican primary and underfunded Democratic contenders like William Compton—Guthrie benefits from incumbency and his role as Energy and Commerce Committee chair. No major developments have shifted odds in the past 30 days, but a primary upset, personal scandal, or Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,358End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Brett Guthrie (R) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to retain Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District in the November 2026 general election, driven by the district's strong Republican lean (Cook PVI R+20) and his history of lopsided victories, including a 73%-27% win in 2024. With over $3.9 million raised and $1.9 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfing challengers in the May 19 Republican primary and underfunded Democratic contenders like William Compton—Guthrie benefits from incumbency and his role as Energy and Commerce Committee chair. No major developments have shifted odds in the past 30 days, but a primary upset, personal scandal, or Democratic midterm wave could challenge this outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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