Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for KY-02 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

KY-02 House Election Winner

icon for KY-02 House Election Winner
Politics·Nov 4 Elections

KY-02 House Election Winner

Polymarket

$14,018 Vol.

Polymarket

$14,018 Vol.

Brett Guthrie (R)

$6,347 Vol.

95%

Megan Wingfield (D)

$7,671 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brett Guthrie maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district due to the seat's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+20 Cook PVI and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent presidential and statewide races. As a longtime incumbent first elected in 2008, Guthrie secured his party's nomination with 85 percent in the May 2026 primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million compared to Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield's under $8,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Wingfield advanced from a fragmented Democratic primary but lacks the resources or visibility to mount a serious challenge in this west-central Kentucky district. A major unforeseen event, such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to meaningfully alter the current market positioning ahead of the November general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,018
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x2f5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brett Guthrie maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district due to the seat's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+20 Cook PVI and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent presidential and statewide races. As a longtime incumbent first elected in 2008, Guthrie secured his party's nomination with 85 percent in the May 2026 primary and holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4.7 million compared to Democratic nominee Megan Wingfield's under $8,000. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race as solid or safe Republican. Wingfield advanced from a fragmented Democratic primary but lacks the resources or visibility to mount a serious challenge in this west-central Kentucky district. A major unforeseen event, such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent, would be required to meaningfully alter the current market positioning ahead of the November general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,018
End Date
Nov 4, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x2f5e3684c...

Related

icon for Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the KY-05 House seat?

96%
icon for Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?

89%
icon for Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?

Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?

98%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"KY-02 House Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Brett Guthrie (R)" at 96%, followed by "Megan Wingfield (D)" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "KY-02 House Election Winner" has generated $14K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "KY-02 House Election Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "KY-02 House Election Winner" is "Brett Guthrie (R)" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Megan Wingfield (D)" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "KY-02 House Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.