Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman in early March 2026, striking military sites, US facilities, and civilian infrastructure like Dubai in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks. Fresh drone strikes hit a Kuwaiti refinery and UAE gas complex within the past day, prompting heightened alerts across the region. Iranian officials have threatened to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines and target bases hosting US forces, while Gulf states issued unified condemnations, bolstered air defenses, and signaled readiness for counteraction. Iran-backed Houthis threaten resumed assaults on Saudi and UAE energy targets plus Red Sea shipping disruptions. Traders monitor Strait of Hormuz chokepoints and potential diplomatic off-ramps for further escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
$26,352 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
98%
April 2
14%
April 3
96%
April 4
89%
April 5
81%
April 6
85%
April 7
86%
April 8
71%
April 9
76%
April 10
53%
$26,352 Vol.
April 1
$5,357 Vol.
98%
April 2
$10,463 Vol.
14%
April 3
$814 Vol.
96%
April 4
$6,129 Vol.
89%
April 5
$72 Vol.
81%
April 6
$101 Vol.
85%
April 7
$64 Vol.
86%
April 8
$172 Vol.
71%
April 9
$3,179 Vol.
76%
April 10
$1 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman in early March 2026, striking military sites, US facilities, and civilian infrastructure like Dubai in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks. Fresh drone strikes hit a Kuwaiti refinery and UAE gas complex within the past day, prompting heightened alerts across the region. Iranian officials have threatened to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines and target bases hosting US forces, while Gulf states issued unified condemnations, bolstered air defenses, and signaled readiness for counteraction. Iran-backed Houthis threaten resumed assaults on Saudi and UAE energy targets plus Red Sea shipping disruptions. Traders monitor Strait of Hormuz chokepoints and potential diplomatic off-ramps for further escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$26,352End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman in early March 2026, striking military sites, US facilities, and civilian infrastructure like Dubai in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks. Fresh drone strikes hit a Kuwaiti refinery and UAE gas complex within the past day, prompting heightened alerts across the region. Iranian officials have threatened to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines and target bases hosting US forces, while Gulf states issued unified condemnations, bolstered air defenses, and signaled readiness for counteraction. Iran-backed Houthis threaten resumed assaults on Saudi and UAE energy targets plus Red Sea shipping disruptions. Traders monitor Strait of Hormuz chokepoints and potential diplomatic off-ramps for further escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$26,352End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman in early March 2026, striking military sites, US facilities, and civilian infrastructure like Dubai in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks. Fresh drone strikes hit a Kuwaiti refinery and UAE gas complex within the past day, prompting heightened alerts across the region. Iranian officials have threatened to seize UAE and Bahrain coastlines and target bases hosting US forces, while Gulf states issued unified condemnations, bolstered air defenses, and signaled readiness for counteraction. Iran-backed Houthis threaten resumed assaults on Saudi and UAE energy targets plus Red Sea shipping disruptions. Traders monitor Strait of Hormuz chokepoints and potential diplomatic off-ramps for further escalation signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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