Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's strong incumbency advantage in deeply Republican Idaho underpins trader consensus pricing a GOP victory at 93.8% in the 2026 gubernatorial race, with the May 19 primary six weeks away. Little faces five primary challengers including Sean Crystal and Mark Fitzpatrick, but absent public polling and bolstered by his recent praise for the legislature's April 2 adjournment amid budget cuts, he remains the clear frontrunner. Democrats like Terri Pickens confront steep barriers in a state with GOP supermajority voter registration and no Democratic governor since 1995. Scenarios to upend odds include a damaging primary upset or late scandal, though historical base rates heavily favor Republicans.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
94%
Democrat
5%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican
$3,592 Vol.
94%
Democrat
$3,337 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's strong incumbency advantage in deeply Republican Idaho underpins trader consensus pricing a GOP victory at 93.8% in the 2026 gubernatorial race, with the May 19 primary six weeks away. Little faces five primary challengers including Sean Crystal and Mark Fitzpatrick, but absent public polling and bolstered by his recent praise for the legislature's April 2 adjournment amid budget cuts, he remains the clear frontrunner. Democrats like Terri Pickens confront steep barriers in a state with GOP supermajority voter registration and no Democratic governor since 1995. Scenarios to upend odds include a damaging primary upset or late scandal, though historical base rates heavily favor Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$6,929End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's strong incumbency advantage in deeply Republican Idaho underpins trader consensus pricing a GOP victory at 93.8% in the 2026 gubernatorial race, with the May 19 primary six weeks away. Little faces five primary challengers including Sean Crystal and Mark Fitzpatrick, but absent public polling and bolstered by his recent praise for the legislature's April 2 adjournment amid budget cuts, he remains the clear frontrunner. Democrats like Terri Pickens confront steep barriers in a state with GOP supermajority voter registration and no Democratic governor since 1995. Scenarios to upend odds include a damaging primary upset or late scandal, though historical base rates heavily favor Republicans.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$6,929End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gov. Brad Little's strong incumbency advantage in deeply Republican Idaho underpins trader consensus pricing a GOP victory at 93.8% in the 2026 gubernatorial race, with the May 19 primary six weeks away. Little faces five primary challengers including Sean Crystal and Mark Fitzpatrick, but absent public polling and bolstered by his recent praise for the legislature's April 2 adjournment amid budget cuts, he remains the clear frontrunner. Democrats like Terri Pickens confront steep barriers in a state with GOP supermajority voter registration and no Democratic governor since 1995. Scenarios to upend odds include a damaging primary upset or late scandal, though historical base rates heavily favor Republicans.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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