**Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District remains one of the nation’s most competitive House seats, with narrow Republican holds in 2022 and 2024.** Forecasters rate the 2026 race a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s swing character and the national midterm environment. Sarah Trone Garriott has raised more than incumbent Zach Nunn through mid-2026, built on her record flipping Republican-leaning state Senate seats, and is pressing attacks on Nunn’s earlier votes related to Epstein files release. Nunn emphasizes his legislative record on taxes, security, and health care while launching ads and accepting debates. Prediction markets price the Democratic nominee as the clear favorite, consistent with the seat’s history of close contests and the challenger’s organizational and financial positioning heading into the final stretch.