Christina Bohannan holds a strong lead in the IA-01 House race as traders price in Democratic advantages typical of midterm cycles under Republican presidential leadership. The district's narrow 2024 result, where incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks prevailed by fewer than 800 votes in their prior matchup, has shifted with recent polling showing Bohannan ahead by low single digits and forecasters moving the seat toward lean Democratic. Key influences include voter dissatisfaction tied to national economic and policy trends, Bohannan's expanded outreach in rural counties, and the October 20 debate that could shape final turnout. An independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$31,377 Vol.
$31,377 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Christina Bohannan (D)
79%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
20%
$31,377 Vol.
$31,377 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Christina Bohannan (D)
$19,893 Vol.
79%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
$11,484 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan holds a strong lead in the IA-01 House race as traders price in Democratic advantages typical of midterm cycles under Republican presidential leadership. The district's narrow 2024 result, where incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks prevailed by fewer than 800 votes in their prior matchup, has shifted with recent polling showing Bohannan ahead by low single digits and forecasters moving the seat toward lean Democratic. Key influences include voter dissatisfaction tied to national economic and policy trends, Bohannan's expanded outreach in rural counties, and the October 20 debate that could shape final turnout. An independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ET
Volume
$31,377End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christina Bohannan holds a strong lead in the IA-01 House race as traders price in Democratic advantages typical of midterm cycles under Republican presidential leadership. The district's narrow 2024 result, where incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks prevailed by fewer than 800 votes in their prior matchup, has shifted with recent polling showing Bohannan ahead by low single digits and forecasters moving the seat toward lean Democratic. Key influences include voter dissatisfaction tied to national economic and policy trends, Bohannan's expanded outreach in rural counties, and the October 20 debate that could shape final turnout. An independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,377End Date
Nov 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:57 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christina Bohannan holds a strong lead in the IA-01 House race as traders price in Democratic advantages typical of midterm cycles under Republican presidential leadership. The district's narrow 2024 result, where incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks prevailed by fewer than 800 votes in their prior matchup, has shifted with recent polling showing Bohannan ahead by low single digits and forecasters moving the seat toward lean Democratic. Key influences include voter dissatisfaction tied to national economic and policy trends, Bohannan's expanded outreach in rural counties, and the October 20 debate that could shape final turnout. An independent candidate adds minor vote-splitting uncertainty ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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