Christina Bohannan holds a strong lead in the IA-01 House race as traders price the Democratic challenger at 84.5% to defeat incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks. The district, which Trump carried by less than one point in 2024, has shifted toward Democrats amid low presidential approval tied to high consumer prices and the conflict with Iran. Bohannan, making her third run, has matched the Republican’s roughly $7 million fundraising total and leads recent polling by several points even with an independent candidate in the field. Forecasters have moved the seat from toss-up to lean or tilt Democratic in recent weeks. A late-September FEC complaint over the major-party candidates’ debate boycott and a restricted two-candidate forum has drawn limited attention but underscores the race’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.