The IA-02 contest remains closely contested because the open seat left by Republican Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid sits in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting yet shows narrow head-to-head polling. Democrat Lindsay James, a state representative backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has matched or slightly led Republican Joe Mitchell, a former state lawmaker and Trump-endorsed candidate with HUD and FHFA experience, in July surveys and comparable fundraising totals exceeding $1.5 million each. Both cleared their June primaries comfortably, and the campaigns have scheduled fall debates. Trader pricing reflects this balance of an R-leaning base against James’s local profile and national Democratic support, with further movement likely tied to additional polling, turnout patterns, or late-cycle national conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIA-02 House Election Winner
IA-02 House Election Winner
$21,696 Vol.
$21,696 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Lindsay James (D)
54%
Joe Mitchell (R)
45%
$21,696 Vol.
$21,696 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Lindsay James (D)
$6,430 Vol.
54%
Joe Mitchell (R)
$15,266 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IA-02 contest remains closely contested because the open seat left by Republican Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid sits in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting yet shows narrow head-to-head polling. Democrat Lindsay James, a state representative backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has matched or slightly led Republican Joe Mitchell, a former state lawmaker and Trump-endorsed candidate with HUD and FHFA experience, in July surveys and comparable fundraising totals exceeding $1.5 million each. Both cleared their June primaries comfortably, and the campaigns have scheduled fall debates. Trader pricing reflects this balance of an R-leaning base against James’s local profile and national Democratic support, with further movement likely tied to additional polling, turnout patterns, or late-cycle national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$21,696End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The IA-02 contest remains closely contested because the open seat left by Republican Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid sits in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting yet shows narrow head-to-head polling. Democrat Lindsay James, a state representative backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has matched or slightly led Republican Joe Mitchell, a former state lawmaker and Trump-endorsed candidate with HUD and FHFA experience, in July surveys and comparable fundraising totals exceeding $1.5 million each. Both cleared their June primaries comfortably, and the campaigns have scheduled fall debates. Trader pricing reflects this balance of an R-leaning base against James’s local profile and national Democratic support, with further movement likely tied to additional polling, turnout patterns, or late-cycle national conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,696End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...The IA-02 contest remains closely contested because the open seat left by Republican Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid sits in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in recent presidential voting yet shows narrow head-to-head polling. Democrat Lindsay James, a state representative backed by the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has matched or slightly led Republican Joe Mitchell, a former state lawmaker and Trump-endorsed candidate with HUD and FHFA experience, in July surveys and comparable fundraising totals exceeding $1.5 million each. Both cleared their June primaries comfortably, and the campaigns have scheduled fall debates. Trader pricing reflects this balance of an R-leaning base against James’s local profile and national Democratic support, with further movement likely tied to additional polling, turnout patterns, or late-cycle national conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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