Market icon
Economy·Nonfarm Payroll

How many jobs added in March?

Market icon
Economy·Nonfarm Payroll

How many jobs added in March?

Apr 3

Apr 3

50k – 100k 36%

0 – 50k 34%

100k+ 18%

-50k – 0 13%

Polymarket
NEW

50k – 100k 36%

0 – 50k 34%

100k+ 18%

-50k – 0 13%

Polymarket
NEW

<-150k

$1,057 Vol.

3%

-150k – -100k

$0 Vol.

5%

-100k – -50k

$0 Vol.

5%

-50k – 0

$0 Vol.

16%

0 – 50k

$0 Vol.

34%

50k – 100k

$1,440 Vol.

34%

100k+

$1,026 Vol.

20%

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$3,522
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Surging initial jobless claims to 219,000 last week and a downside surprise in ADP private payrolls at just 140,000 have driven Polymarket trader consensus toward sub-100k nonfarm payroll growth, with market-implied odds split evenly at 33.5% apiece for 0-50k and 50-100k bins. This tight competition reflects competitive dynamics between soft landing hopes and recession risks, as 100k+ carries only 20% while negative growth bins total 29%. Differentiating factors include downward revisions in prior reports averaging -50k, weakening ISM services PMI, and Fed hawkishness delaying rate cuts, positioning traders for a median implied print near 40k ahead of Friday's BLS release.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many jobs added in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0 – 50k" at 34%, followed by "50k – 100k" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many jobs added in March?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many jobs added in March?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many jobs added in March?" is "0 – 50k" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50k – 100k" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many jobs added in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.