Trader consensus favors exactly three countries struck by Israel in March at 65.5%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the escalating 2026 Iran war that began late February. Intensified Israeli strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and military sites in Tehran as recently as March 28, while Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and Beirut faced ongoing attacks, and southern Syrian government infrastructure was hit on March 20 following Druze clashes. Yemen's Houthis escalated by launching their first ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, but no Israeli retaliation strikes there have been verified, limiting ≥4 odds to 35.5% with March nearly concluded and no signals of new fronts like Iraq beyond militia-targeted US-Israeli actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel strike in March?
How many different countries will Israel strike in March?
$323,640 Vol.
$323,640 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
66%
≥4
36%
$323,640 Vol.
$323,640 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
$93,367 Vol.
66%
≥4
$201,087 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors exactly three countries struck by Israel in March at 65.5%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the escalating 2026 Iran war that began late February. Intensified Israeli strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and military sites in Tehran as recently as March 28, while Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and Beirut faced ongoing attacks, and southern Syrian government infrastructure was hit on March 20 following Druze clashes. Yemen's Houthis escalated by launching their first ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, but no Israeli retaliation strikes there have been verified, limiting ≥4 odds to 35.5% with March nearly concluded and no signals of new fronts like Iraq beyond militia-targeted US-Israeli actions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$323,640End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors exactly three countries struck by Israel in March at 65.5%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the escalating 2026 Iran war that began late February. Intensified Israeli strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and military sites in Tehran as recently as March 28, while Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and Beirut faced ongoing attacks, and southern Syrian government infrastructure was hit on March 20 following Druze clashes. Yemen's Houthis escalated by launching their first ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, but no Israeli retaliation strikes there have been verified, limiting ≥4 odds to 35.5% with March nearly concluded and no signals of new fronts like Iraq beyond militia-targeted US-Israeli actions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$323,640End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors exactly three countries struck by Israel in March at 65.5%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the escalating 2026 Iran war that began late February. Intensified Israeli strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities like Arak and military sites in Tehran as recently as March 28, while Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and Beirut faced ongoing attacks, and southern Syrian government infrastructure was hit on March 20 following Druze clashes. Yemen's Houthis escalated by launching their first ballistic missiles at Israel on March 28-29, but no Israeli retaliation strikes there have been verified, limiting ≥4 odds to 35.5% with March nearly concluded and no signals of new fronts like Iraq beyond militia-targeted US-Israeli actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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