Trader consensus heavily favors two countries at 80% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil in early April—such as joint US-Israeli operations on April 6-7 targeting military sites—and intensive campaigns against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, culminating in the deadliest strikes on April 8 that killed over 180 before the US-Iran ceasefire took effect. The subsequent 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce announced around April 15 has prompted de-escalation signals, with no verified new airstrikes on additional UN member states like Syria or Yemen reported since, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. With the month nearing its end and diplomatic pauses holding, probabilities for three or more countries remain low amid reduced escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
How many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
2 80%
3 12%
≥4 7%
$113,587 Vol.
$113,587 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2
80%
3
12%
≥4
7%
2 80%
3 12%
≥4 7%
$113,587 Vol.
$113,587 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
2
$29,143 Vol.
80%
3
$33,106 Vol.
12%
≥4
$43,871 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors two countries at 80% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil in early April—such as joint US-Israeli operations on April 6-7 targeting military sites—and intensive campaigns against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, culminating in the deadliest strikes on April 8 that killed over 180 before the US-Iran ceasefire took effect. The subsequent 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce announced around April 15 has prompted de-escalation signals, with no verified new airstrikes on additional UN member states like Syria or Yemen reported since, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. With the month nearing its end and diplomatic pauses holding, probabilities for three or more countries remain low amid reduced escalation risks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$113,587End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors two countries at 80% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil in early April—such as joint US-Israeli operations on April 6-7 targeting military sites—and intensive campaigns against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, culminating in the deadliest strikes on April 8 that killed over 180 before the US-Iran ceasefire took effect. The subsequent 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce announced around April 15 has prompted de-escalation signals, with no verified new airstrikes on additional UN member states like Syria or Yemen reported since, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. With the month nearing its end and diplomatic pauses holding, probabilities for three or more countries remain low amid reduced escalation risks.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$113,587End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors two countries at 80% implied probability, driven by confirmed Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil in early April—such as joint US-Israeli operations on April 6-7 targeting military sites—and intensive campaigns against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, culminating in the deadliest strikes on April 8 that killed over 180 before the US-Iran ceasefire took effect. The subsequent 10-day Israel-Lebanon truce announced around April 15 has prompted de-escalation signals, with no verified new airstrikes on additional UN member states like Syria or Yemen reported since, despite Houthi missile launches toward Israel. With the month nearing its end and diplomatic pauses holding, probabilities for three or more countries remain low amid reduced escalation risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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