Georgia’s 11th congressional district, covering northwest Atlanta suburbs and exurbs with a partisan voting index around R+12, has favored Republican candidates by double-digit margins in recent cycles, including an 18.5-point Trump victory in 2024. The open seat after Barry Loudermilk’s retirement drew limited Democratic investment, while John Cowan secured the Republican nomination with a decisive June runoff win. Forecasts from multiple outlets rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with trader pricing that assigns Cowan a commanding lead. An internal Democratic poll showing a narrow Harden edge remains an outlier amid broader data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unusually high Democratic turnout or late developments affecting Cowan’s profile before the November 3 general election.