Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year—near the 2% target—and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% alongside a surprise 92,000 job loss. The Fed's dot plot signals potential for one rate cut later in the year, reflecting balanced risks despite oil price surges from Iran tensions. Key catalysts include March CPI data due April 10 and the May FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce no-hike expectations versus geopolitical inflation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$771,236 Vol.
$771,236 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$771,236 Vol.
$771,236 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year—near the 2% target—and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% alongside a surprise 92,000 job loss. The Fed's dot plot signals potential for one rate cut later in the year, reflecting balanced risks despite oil price surges from Iran tensions. Key catalysts include March CPI data due April 10 and the May FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce no-hike expectations versus geopolitical inflation pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$771,236End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year—near the 2% target—and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% alongside a surprise 92,000 job loss. The Fed's dot plot signals potential for one rate cut later in the year, reflecting balanced risks despite oil price surges from Iran tensions. Key catalysts include March CPI data due April 10 and the May FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce no-hike expectations versus geopolitical inflation pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$771,236End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid stable February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year—near the 2% target—and a softening labor market with unemployment rising to 4.4% alongside a surprise 92,000 job loss. The Fed's dot plot signals potential for one rate cut later in the year, reflecting balanced risks despite oil price surges from Iran tensions. Key catalysts include March CPI data due April 10 and the May FOMC meeting, where persistent disinflation could reinforce no-hike expectations versus geopolitical inflation pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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