Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Shin Yong-han at 77.5% implied probability to win the Chungcheongbuk Province governor by-election, driven by recent Realmeter and Hankook Research polls showing him leading 48-52% against Noh Yeong-min's 18-22%, bolstered by People Power Party (PPP) dominance in the conservative-leaning province following the April parliamentary elections. Noh Yeong-min trails amid Democratic Party (DP) internal divisions and weaker regional support. Other candidates like Song Ki-sub and Yoon Hee-geun linger below 5% due to fragmented backing. The November special election under first-past-the-post rules awaits candidate registration deadlines and televised debates next week, which could narrow the gap if turnout favors progressives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedChungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner
Chungcheongbuk Province Governor Election Winner
Shin Yong-han 78%
Noh Yeong-min 18%
Song Ki-sub 4.8%
Cho Gil-hyeong 3.6%
Shin Yong-han
78%
Noh Yeong-min
18%
Song Ki-sub
5%
Cho Gil-hyeong
4%
Kim Young-hwan
3%
Yoon Hee-geun
3%
Lee Jong-bae
2%
Do Jong-hwan
2%
Shin Yong-han 78%
Noh Yeong-min 18%
Song Ki-sub 4.8%
Cho Gil-hyeong 3.6%
Shin Yong-han
78%
Noh Yeong-min
18%
Song Ki-sub
5%
Cho Gil-hyeong
4%
Kim Young-hwan
3%
Yoon Hee-geun
3%
Lee Jong-bae
2%
Do Jong-hwan
2%
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Shin Yong-han at 77.5% implied probability to win the Chungcheongbuk Province governor by-election, driven by recent Realmeter and Hankook Research polls showing him leading 48-52% against Noh Yeong-min's 18-22%, bolstered by People Power Party (PPP) dominance in the conservative-leaning province following the April parliamentary elections. Noh Yeong-min trails amid Democratic Party (DP) internal divisions and weaker regional support. Other candidates like Song Ki-sub and Yoon Hee-geun linger below 5% due to fragmented backing. The November special election under first-past-the-post rules awaits candidate registration deadlines and televised debates next week, which could narrow the gap if turnout favors progressives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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