Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 92% in California's 32nd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant fundraising ($4.8 million cash on hand) and history of general election margins exceeding 30 points since 2020. Recent 2026 redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted boundaries rightward by nearly seven points—moderating the prior D+20 lean—but major forecasters still rate it Solid Democratic, with a crowded primary field of seven Democrats alongside one Republican (Larry Thompson) likely advancing a Democrat to the November 3 general. The June 2 top-two primary looms as the next catalyst, though a Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Sherman scandal, or primary surprise consolidating GOP turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedCA-32 House Election Winner
CA-32 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,923 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$2,386 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 92% in California's 32nd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant fundraising ($4.8 million cash on hand) and history of general election margins exceeding 30 points since 2020. Recent 2026 redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted boundaries rightward by nearly seven points—moderating the prior D+20 lean—but major forecasters still rate it Solid Democratic, with a crowded primary field of seven Democrats alongside one Republican (Larry Thompson) likely advancing a Democrat to the November 3 general. The June 2 top-two primary looms as the next catalyst, though a Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Sherman scandal, or primary surprise consolidating GOP turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$5,308End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 92% in California's 32nd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant fundraising ($4.8 million cash on hand) and history of general election margins exceeding 30 points since 2020. Recent 2026 redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted boundaries rightward by nearly seven points—moderating the prior D+20 lean—but major forecasters still rate it Solid Democratic, with a crowded primary field of seven Democrats alongside one Republican (Larry Thompson) likely advancing a Democrat to the November 3 general. The June 2 top-two primary looms as the next catalyst, though a Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Sherman scandal, or primary surprise consolidating GOP turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,308End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Democratic Party victory at 92% in California's 32nd Congressional District House race, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, incumbent Rep. Brad Sherman's dominant fundraising ($4.8 million cash on hand) and history of general election margins exceeding 30 points since 2020. Recent 2026 redistricting via Proposition 50 shifted boundaries rightward by nearly seven points—moderating the prior D+20 lean—but major forecasters still rate it Solid Democratic, with a crowded primary field of seven Democrats alongside one Republican (Larry Thompson) likely advancing a Democrat to the November 3 general. The June 2 top-two primary looms as the next catalyst, though a Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, Sherman scandal, or primary surprise consolidating GOP turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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